Recent polling in Amazonas, including surveys from Real Time Big Data and Quaest released August 25-26, shows President Lula (PT) holding a narrow lead or technical tie with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) for first place in the October 4 first-round presidential vote, with Lula at 38-40% and Flávio at 35-39% among likely voters. Smaller shares go to candidates such as Renan Santos, Pablo Marçal, Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Augusto Cury. Lula's position draws support from recent offshore oil discoveries near the Amazon basin and associated development messaging, while Flávio benefits from strong conservative backing in the state. The first-round outcome remains sensitive to turnout among undecided voters and any late shifts before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLula 66%
Flavio Bolsonaro 23%
Renan Santos <1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi <1%
$14,924 Vol.
$14,924 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
66%
Flavio Bolsonaro
23%
Renan Santos
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Samara
<1%
Zema
<1%
Lula 66%
Flavio Bolsonaro 23%
Renan Santos <1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi <1%
$14,924 Vol.
$14,924 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$4,184 Vol.
66%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$2,707 Vol.
23%
Renan Santos
$805 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$908 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$804 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$732 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$710 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$736 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$571 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$747 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$836 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$542 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$641 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amazonas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling in Amazonas, including surveys from Real Time Big Data and Quaest released August 25-26, shows President Lula (PT) holding a narrow lead or technical tie with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) for first place in the October 4 first-round presidential vote, with Lula at 38-40% and Flávio at 35-39% among likely voters. Smaller shares go to candidates such as Renan Santos, Pablo Marçal, Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Augusto Cury. Lula's position draws support from recent offshore oil discoveries near the Amazon basin and associated development messaging, while Flávio benefits from strong conservative backing in the state. The first-round outcome remains sensitive to turnout among undecided voters and any late shifts before election day.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amazonas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ET
Volume
$14,924End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amazonas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling in Amazonas, including surveys from Real Time Big Data and Quaest released August 25-26, shows President Lula (PT) holding a narrow lead or technical tie with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) for first place in the October 4 first-round presidential vote, with Lula at 38-40% and Flávio at 35-39% among likely voters. Smaller shares go to candidates such as Renan Santos, Pablo Marçal, Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Augusto Cury. Lula's position draws support from recent offshore oil discoveries near the Amazon basin and associated development messaging, while Flávio benefits from strong conservative backing in the state. The first-round outcome remains sensitive to turnout among undecided voters and any late shifts before election day.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amazonas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$14,924End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling in Amazonas, including surveys from Real Time Big Data and Quaest released August 25-26, shows President Lula (PT) holding a narrow lead or technical tie with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) for first place in the October 4 first-round presidential vote, with Lula at 38-40% and Flávio at 35-39% among likely voters. Smaller shares go to candidates such as Renan Santos, Pablo Marçal, Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Augusto Cury. Lula's position draws support from recent offshore oil discoveries near the Amazon basin and associated development messaging, while Flávio benefits from strong conservative backing in the state. The first-round outcome remains sensitive to turnout among undecided voters and any late shifts before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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