Recent polls from Quaest and Neokemp show a tight contest for Santa Catarina’s two Senate seats among Esperidião Amin (PP), Carlos Bolsonaro (PL), and Carol de Toni (PL), with combined first- and second-preference support clustered in the low-to-mid teens to mid-20s amid high undecided shares. Vote splitting within the PL ticket, local resistance to Carlos Bolsonaro’s residency transfer from Rio de Janeiro, and Amin’s positioning as the “catarinense raiz” incumbent keep the ordering fluid. Trader pricing for second place—led by Carlos Bolsonaro, followed by Amin and de Toni—reflects these narrow margins and the potential for any of the three to finish ahead depending on turnout among bolsonarista and centrist blocs. Further campaign events, alliance adjustments around Governor Jorginho Mello’s reelection effort, or late shifts in undecided voters could widen gaps before October.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSanta Catarina Senate Election: 2nd Place
Santa Catarina Senate Election: 2nd Place
Carlos Bolsonaro 37%
Esperidião Amin 29%
Carol de Toni 24%
Jeferson da Rocha <1%
$25,224 Vol.
$25,224 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Carlos Bolsonaro
37%
Esperidião Amin
29%
Carol de Toni
24%
Jeferson da Rocha
1%
Lunelli
<1%
Carol
<1%
Décio Lima
<1%
Afrânio Boppré
<1%
Joaninha de Oliveira
<1%
Túlio de Amorim Pfuetzenreiter
<1%
Marcos Dorval
<1%
Ana Lucia da Silveira Machado
<1%
Marlene Soccas
<1%
Carlos Bolsonaro 37%
Esperidião Amin 29%
Carol de Toni 24%
Jeferson da Rocha <1%
$25,224 Vol.
$25,224 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Carlos Bolsonaro
$6,416 Vol.
37%
Esperidião Amin
$2,813 Vol.
29%
Carol de Toni
$9,403 Vol.
24%
Jeferson da Rocha
$921 Vol.
1%
Lunelli
$642 Vol.
<1%
Carol
$608 Vol.
<1%
Décio Lima
$659 Vol.
<1%
Afrânio Boppré
$707 Vol.
<1%
Joaninha de Oliveira
$710 Vol.
<1%
Túlio de Amorim Pfuetzenreiter
$663 Vol.
<1%
Marcos Dorval
$569 Vol.
<1%
Ana Lucia da Silveira Machado
$550 Vol.
<1%
Marlene Soccas
$565 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Santa Catarina is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polls from Quaest and Neokemp show a tight contest for Santa Catarina’s two Senate seats among Esperidião Amin (PP), Carlos Bolsonaro (PL), and Carol de Toni (PL), with combined first- and second-preference support clustered in the low-to-mid teens to mid-20s amid high undecided shares. Vote splitting within the PL ticket, local resistance to Carlos Bolsonaro’s residency transfer from Rio de Janeiro, and Amin’s positioning as the “catarinense raiz” incumbent keep the ordering fluid. Trader pricing for second place—led by Carlos Bolsonaro, followed by Amin and de Toni—reflects these narrow margins and the potential for any of the three to finish ahead depending on turnout among bolsonarista and centrist blocs. Further campaign events, alliance adjustments around Governor Jorginho Mello’s reelection effort, or late shifts in undecided voters could widen gaps before October.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Santa Catarina is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ET
Volume
$25,224End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Santa Catarina is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polls from Quaest and Neokemp show a tight contest for Santa Catarina’s two Senate seats among Esperidião Amin (PP), Carlos Bolsonaro (PL), and Carol de Toni (PL), with combined first- and second-preference support clustered in the low-to-mid teens to mid-20s amid high undecided shares. Vote splitting within the PL ticket, local resistance to Carlos Bolsonaro’s residency transfer from Rio de Janeiro, and Amin’s positioning as the “catarinense raiz” incumbent keep the ordering fluid. Trader pricing for second place—led by Carlos Bolsonaro, followed by Amin and de Toni—reflects these narrow margins and the potential for any of the three to finish ahead depending on turnout among bolsonarista and centrist blocs. Further campaign events, alliance adjustments around Governor Jorginho Mello’s reelection effort, or late shifts in undecided voters could widen gaps before October.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Santa Catarina is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$25,224End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls from Quaest and Neokemp show a tight contest for Santa Catarina’s two Senate seats among Esperidião Amin (PP), Carlos Bolsonaro (PL), and Carol de Toni (PL), with combined first- and second-preference support clustered in the low-to-mid teens to mid-20s amid high undecided shares. Vote splitting within the PL ticket, local resistance to Carlos Bolsonaro’s residency transfer from Rio de Janeiro, and Amin’s positioning as the “catarinense raiz” incumbent keep the ordering fluid. Trader pricing for second place—led by Carlos Bolsonaro, followed by Amin and de Toni—reflects these narrow margins and the potential for any of the three to finish ahead depending on turnout among bolsonarista and centrist blocs. Further campaign events, alliance adjustments around Governor Jorginho Mello’s reelection effort, or late shifts in undecided voters could widen gaps before October.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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