The closely contested Bahia gubernatorial race between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues of the PT and challenger ACM Neto of União Brasil drives the tight trader consensus, with recent polls showing the pair separated by just one to four points in both first-round and runoff scenarios. Multiple surveys from July and August confirm technical ties within margins of error, reflecting stable voter bases, moderate government approval ratings near 57 percent, and sizable blocs of undecided or changeable voters. The October 4 first-round vote, and possible October 25 runoff, heightens sensitivity to late campaign developments such as debate performances, regional mobilization in the interior, alliances with Senate candidates, and turnout patterns that could shift momentum before ballots close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedJerônimo Rodrigues 54%
ACM Neto 45%
Kleber Rosa <1%
José Carlos Aleluia <1%
$122,133 Vol.
$122,133 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Jerônimo Rodrigues
54%
ACM Neto
45%
Kleber Rosa
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
<1%
João Roma
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
<1%
Rui Costa
<1%
Jerônimo Rodrigues 54%
ACM Neto 45%
Kleber Rosa <1%
José Carlos Aleluia <1%
$122,133 Vol.
$122,133 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Jerônimo Rodrigues
$38,528 Vol.
54%
ACM Neto
$43,491 Vol.
45%
Kleber Rosa
$12,875 Vol.
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
$10,981 Vol.
<1%
João Roma
$5,186 Vol.
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
$5,325 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa
$5,747 Vol.
<1%
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The closely contested Bahia gubernatorial race between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues of the PT and challenger ACM Neto of União Brasil drives the tight trader consensus, with recent polls showing the pair separated by just one to four points in both first-round and runoff scenarios. Multiple surveys from July and August confirm technical ties within margins of error, reflecting stable voter bases, moderate government approval ratings near 57 percent, and sizable blocs of undecided or changeable voters. The October 4 first-round vote, and possible October 25 runoff, heightens sensitivity to late campaign developments such as debate performances, regional mobilization in the interior, alliances with Senate candidates, and turnout patterns that could shift momentum before ballots close.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
Volume
$122,133End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The closely contested Bahia gubernatorial race between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues of the PT and challenger ACM Neto of União Brasil drives the tight trader consensus, with recent polls showing the pair separated by just one to four points in both first-round and runoff scenarios. Multiple surveys from July and August confirm technical ties within margins of error, reflecting stable voter bases, moderate government approval ratings near 57 percent, and sizable blocs of undecided or changeable voters. The October 4 first-round vote, and possible October 25 runoff, heightens sensitivity to late campaign developments such as debate performances, regional mobilization in the interior, alliances with Senate candidates, and turnout patterns that could shift momentum before ballots close.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$122,133End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely contested Bahia gubernatorial race between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues of the PT and challenger ACM Neto of União Brasil drives the tight trader consensus, with recent polls showing the pair separated by just one to four points in both first-round and runoff scenarios. Multiple surveys from July and August confirm technical ties within margins of error, reflecting stable voter bases, moderate government approval ratings near 57 percent, and sizable blocs of undecided or changeable voters. The October 4 first-round vote, and possible October 25 runoff, heightens sensitivity to late campaign developments such as debate performances, regional mobilization in the interior, alliances with Senate candidates, and turnout patterns that could shift momentum before ballots close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions