Recent polling from mid-September shows Flávio Bolsonaro, the Liberal Party (PL) candidate endorsed by his ineligible father Jair Bolsonaro, consistently placing second in first-round scenarios with shares ranging from 30% to 38%, behind incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) at 36-42%. Flávio has narrowed the gap through steady gains among independents, women, and right-leaning voters, aided by consolidation of support from lower-polling conservatives such as Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema. A Supreme Court ethics controversy involving ministers Moraes and Mendonça has dominated recent news cycles and appears to have boosted right-wing mobilization. With the October 4 first round approaching, traders assign the highest probability to Flávio exceeding 39% or landing in the mid-to-high 30s, reflecting both his polling trajectory and the polarized contest’s limited room for other candidates to fragment the vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated39%+ 39%
36-39% 17%
30-33% 16%
<30% 16%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
<30%
16%
30-33%
16%
33-36%
16%
36-39%
17%
39%+
39%
39%+ 39%
36-39% 17%
30-33% 16%
<30% 16%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
<30%
$0 Vol.
16%
30-33%
$0 Vol.
16%
33-36%
$0 Vol.
16%
36-39%
$0 Vol.
17%
39%+
$20 Vol.
39%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from mid-September shows Flávio Bolsonaro, the Liberal Party (PL) candidate endorsed by his ineligible father Jair Bolsonaro, consistently placing second in first-round scenarios with shares ranging from 30% to 38%, behind incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) at 36-42%. Flávio has narrowed the gap through steady gains among independents, women, and right-leaning voters, aided by consolidation of support from lower-polling conservatives such as Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema. A Supreme Court ethics controversy involving ministers Moraes and Mendonça has dominated recent news cycles and appears to have boosted right-wing mobilization. With the October 4 first round approaching, traders assign the highest probability to Flávio exceeding 39% or landing in the mid-to-high 30s, reflecting both his polling trajectory and the polarized contest’s limited room for other candidates to fragment the vote.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2026, 10:26 PM ET
Volume
$20End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 10:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from mid-September shows Flávio Bolsonaro, the Liberal Party (PL) candidate endorsed by his ineligible father Jair Bolsonaro, consistently placing second in first-round scenarios with shares ranging from 30% to 38%, behind incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) at 36-42%. Flávio has narrowed the gap through steady gains among independents, women, and right-leaning voters, aided by consolidation of support from lower-polling conservatives such as Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema. A Supreme Court ethics controversy involving ministers Moraes and Mendonça has dominated recent news cycles and appears to have boosted right-wing mobilization. With the October 4 first round approaching, traders assign the highest probability to Flávio exceeding 39% or landing in the mid-to-high 30s, reflecting both his polling trajectory and the polarized contest’s limited room for other candidates to fragment the vote.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$20End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 10:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from mid-September shows Flávio Bolsonaro, the Liberal Party (PL) candidate endorsed by his ineligible father Jair Bolsonaro, consistently placing second in first-round scenarios with shares ranging from 30% to 38%, behind incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) at 36-42%. Flávio has narrowed the gap through steady gains among independents, women, and right-leaning voters, aided by consolidation of support from lower-polling conservatives such as Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema. A Supreme Court ethics controversy involving ministers Moraes and Mendonça has dominated recent news cycles and appears to have boosted right-wing mobilization. With the October 4 first round approaching, traders assign the highest probability to Flávio exceeding 39% or landing in the mid-to-high 30s, reflecting both his polling trajectory and the polarized contest’s limited room for other candidates to fragment the vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
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