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World·Germany

Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?

icon for Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?
World·Germany

Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?

No Next Chancellor before 2028 41%

Boris Pistorius 20%

Hendrik Wüst 11%

Katharina Dröge 9%

Polymarket
NEW

No Next Chancellor before 2028 41%

Boris Pistorius 20%

Hendrik Wüst 11%

Katharina Dröge 9%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for No Next Chancellor before 2028

No Next Chancellor before 2028

$363 Vol.

41%

icon for Boris Pistorius

Boris Pistorius

$23 Vol.

20%

icon for Hendrik Wüst

Hendrik Wüst

$66 Vol.

11%

icon for Katharina Dröge

Katharina Dröge

$59 Vol.

9%

icon for Lars Klingbeil

Lars Klingbeil

$23 Vol.

8%

icon for Felix Banaszak

Felix Banaszak

$23 Vol.

8%

icon for Markus Söder

Markus Söder

$47 Vol.

7%

icon for Tino Chrupalla

Tino Chrupalla

$49 Vol.

6%

icon for Sahra Wagenknecht

Sahra Wagenknecht

$49 Vol.

6%

icon for Alice Weidel

Alice Weidel

$103 Vol.

6%

icon for Jens Spahn

Jens Spahn

$41 Vol.

5%

icon for Carsten Linnemann

Carsten Linnemann

$23 Vol.

5%

icon for Heidi Reichinnek

Heidi Reichinnek

$23 Vol.

4%

Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025. This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent state election setbacks for Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s CDU, including the AfD’s record 43.8% in Saxony-Anhalt on September 6, have triggered open coalition and party discussions of a Kanzlertausch or early leadership change. Merz’s approval ratings sit at historic lows while national polls show the AfD leading and the Union trailing. Upcoming September 20 votes in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Berlin add immediate pressure on the CDU-SPD government. Traders price a meaningful chance of transition before 2028, with options such as Hendrik Wüst, Markus Söder, and Boris Pistorius reflecting internal Union dynamics and potential coalition shifts. The tight spread across many names captures uncertainty over whether Merz survives the current term or faces earlier replacement through parliamentary or party processes.

Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025.

This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany.

To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025. This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$891
End Date
Jan 1, 2028
Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 5:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025. This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent state election setbacks for Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s CDU, including the AfD’s record 43.8% in Saxony-Anhalt on September 6, have triggered open coalition and party discussions of a Kanzlertausch or early leadership change. Merz’s approval ratings sit at historic lows while national polls show the AfD leading and the Union trailing. Upcoming September 20 votes in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Berlin add immediate pressure on the CDU-SPD government. Traders price a meaningful chance of transition before 2028, with options such as Hendrik Wüst, Markus Söder, and Boris Pistorius reflecting internal Union dynamics and potential coalition shifts. The tight spread across many names captures uncertainty over whether Merz survives the current term or faces earlier replacement through parliamentary or party processes.

Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025.

This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany.

To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025. This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$891
End Date
Jan 1, 2028
Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 5:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "No Next Chancellor before 2028" at 41%, followed by "Boris Pistorius" at 20%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 41¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 41% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 15, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?" is "No Next Chancellor before 2028" at 41%, meaning the market assigns a 41% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Boris Pistorius" at 20%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.