**Recent polling for Mecklenburg-Vorpommern’s September 20, 2026 Landtag election shows the CDU hovering at or below 10 percent, supporting the market’s 66.5 percent implied probability on “Under.”** The two most recent surveys—INSA (4–11 August) at exactly 10 percent and Infratest dimap (2–6 July) at 9 percent—place the CDU fourth, behind the AfD (~36 percent), SPD (~29 percent), and Left (~11–12 percent). Earlier 2026 polls had the CDU slightly higher (12–13 percent), but the trend has been downward amid AfD dominance in eastern Germany and the CDU’s limited ability to differentiate itself in a polarized contest. The party’s campaign, led by state chair and top candidate Daniel Peters, has emphasized centrist positioning and local issues, yet it has struggled for visibility in a race increasingly framed as a contest between Minister President Manuela Schwesig (SPD) and the AfD. Structural headwinds include the CDU’s exclusion of coalitions with the Left and its distance from the AfD, leaving it with few clear paths to government relevance. With the election less than a month away and no major late-campaign catalysts apparent, traders are pricing in a result at or below the 10 percent threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 10%?
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 10%?
Over
34% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
Over
34% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 10% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 10% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).**Recent polling for Mecklenburg-Vorpommern’s September 20, 2026 Landtag election shows the CDU hovering at or below 10 percent, supporting the market’s 66.5 percent implied probability on “Under.”**
The two most recent surveys—INSA (4–11 August) at exactly 10 percent and Infratest dimap (2–6 July) at 9 percent—place the CDU fourth, behind the AfD (~36 percent), SPD (~29 percent), and Left (~11–12 percent). Earlier 2026 polls had the CDU slightly higher (12–13 percent), but the trend has been downward amid AfD dominance in eastern Germany and the CDU’s limited ability to differentiate itself in a polarized contest.
The party’s campaign, led by state chair and top candidate Daniel Peters, has emphasized centrist positioning and local issues, yet it has struggled for visibility in a race increasingly framed as a contest between Minister President Manuela Schwesig (SPD) and the AfD. Structural headwinds include the CDU’s exclusion of coalitions with the Left and its distance from the AfD, leaving it with few clear paths to government relevance. With the election less than a month away and no major late-campaign catalysts apparent, traders are pricing in a result at or below the 10 percent threshold.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 10% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 10% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 10% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 10% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 2:33 PM ET
Volume
$8,269End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 10% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 10% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).**Recent polling for Mecklenburg-Vorpommern’s September 20, 2026 Landtag election shows the CDU hovering at or below 10 percent, supporting the market’s 66.5 percent implied probability on “Under.”**
The two most recent surveys—INSA (4–11 August) at exactly 10 percent and Infratest dimap (2–6 July) at 9 percent—place the CDU fourth, behind the AfD (~36 percent), SPD (~29 percent), and Left (~11–12 percent). Earlier 2026 polls had the CDU slightly higher (12–13 percent), but the trend has been downward amid AfD dominance in eastern Germany and the CDU’s limited ability to differentiate itself in a polarized contest.
The party’s campaign, led by state chair and top candidate Daniel Peters, has emphasized centrist positioning and local issues, yet it has struggled for visibility in a race increasingly framed as a contest between Minister President Manuela Schwesig (SPD) and the AfD. Structural headwinds include the CDU’s exclusion of coalitions with the Left and its distance from the AfD, leaving it with few clear paths to government relevance. With the election less than a month away and no major late-campaign catalysts apparent, traders are pricing in a result at or below the 10 percent threshold.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 10% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 10% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 10% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 10% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Volume
$8,269End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent polling for Mecklenburg-Vorpommern’s September 20, 2026 Landtag election shows the CDU hovering at or below 10 percent, supporting the market’s 66.5 percent implied probability on “Under.”** The two most recent surveys—INSA (4–11 August) at exactly 10 percent and Infratest dimap (2–6 July) at 9 percent—place the CDU fourth, behind the AfD (~36 percent), SPD (~29 percent), and Left (~11–12 percent). Earlier 2026 polls had the CDU slightly higher (12–13 percent), but the trend has been downward amid AfD dominance in eastern Germany and the CDU’s limited ability to differentiate itself in a polarized contest. The party’s campaign, led by state chair and top candidate Daniel Peters, has emphasized centrist positioning and local issues, yet it has struggled for visibility in a race increasingly framed as a contest between Minister President Manuela Schwesig (SPD) and the AfD. Structural headwinds include the CDU’s exclusion of coalitions with the Left and its distance from the AfD, leaving it with few clear paths to government relevance. With the election less than a month away and no major late-campaign catalysts apparent, traders are pricing in a result at or below the 10 percent threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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