Recent polls ahead of Berlin’s September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election show Die Linke and the CDU locked in a statistical tie at roughly 20–23 percent, with the AfD a close third near 18 percent and the Greens at 16 percent. This narrow spread among the top three parties, combined with a fragmented field where smaller parties hover near the five-percent threshold, produces trader expectations of minimal separation between the leader and runner-up. Late-campaign polling volatility, coalition arithmetic that rules out simple two-party majorities, and the absence of decisive momentum shifts in the final days have concentrated implied probabilities on the smallest victory-margin bands for Linke and AfD.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLinke 0-2% 50%
AfD 0-2% 25%
AfD 2-5% 24%
CDU 2-5% 18%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
Linke 0-2%
50%
Linke 2-5%
14%
Linke 5-10%
18%
Linke 10%+
17%
CDU 0-2%
18%
CDU 2-5%
18%
CDU 5-10%
18%
CDU 10%+
18%
AfD 0-2%
25%
AfD 2-5%
24%
AfD 5%+
17%
Another party wins
18%
Linke 0-2% 50%
AfD 0-2% 25%
AfD 2-5% 24%
CDU 2-5% 18%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
Linke 0-2%
$20 Vol.
50%
Linke 2-5%
$0 Vol.
14%
Linke 5-10%
$0 Vol.
18%
Linke 10%+
$0 Vol.
17%
CDU 0-2%
$0 Vol.
18%
CDU 2-5%
$0 Vol.
18%
CDU 5-10%
$0 Vol.
18%
CDU 10%+
$0 Vol.
18%
AfD 0-2%
$0 Vol.
25%
AfD 2-5%
$0 Vol.
24%
AfD 5%+
$0 Vol.
17%
Another party wins
$0 Vol.
18%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polls ahead of Berlin’s September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election show Die Linke and the CDU locked in a statistical tie at roughly 20–23 percent, with the AfD a close third near 18 percent and the Greens at 16 percent. This narrow spread among the top three parties, combined with a fragmented field where smaller parties hover near the five-percent threshold, produces trader expectations of minimal separation between the leader and runner-up. Late-campaign polling volatility, coalition arithmetic that rules out simple two-party majorities, and the absence of decisive momentum shifts in the final days have concentrated implied probabilities on the smallest victory-margin bands for Linke and AfD.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2026, 10:21 PM ET
Volume
$20End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 10:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polls ahead of Berlin’s September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election show Die Linke and the CDU locked in a statistical tie at roughly 20–23 percent, with the AfD a close third near 18 percent and the Greens at 16 percent. This narrow spread among the top three parties, combined with a fragmented field where smaller parties hover near the five-percent threshold, produces trader expectations of minimal separation between the leader and runner-up. Late-campaign polling volatility, coalition arithmetic that rules out simple two-party majorities, and the absence of decisive momentum shifts in the final days have concentrated implied probabilities on the smallest victory-margin bands for Linke and AfD.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Volume
$20End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 10:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls ahead of Berlin’s September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election show Die Linke and the CDU locked in a statistical tie at roughly 20–23 percent, with the AfD a close third near 18 percent and the Greens at 16 percent. This narrow spread among the top three parties, combined with a fragmented field where smaller parties hover near the five-percent threshold, produces trader expectations of minimal separation between the leader and runner-up. Late-campaign polling volatility, coalition arithmetic that rules out simple two-party majorities, and the absence of decisive momentum shifts in the final days have concentrated implied probabilities on the smallest victory-margin bands for Linke and AfD.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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