Recent polls place the SPD at 12-15% in the September 20 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election, reflecting its position as the junior partner in the outgoing CDU-led coalition amid low public satisfaction with senate performance and a major power outage. Steffen Krach leads the SPD ticket while the CDU fields Stefan Evers after Kai Wegner’s withdrawal; meanwhile Die Linke has surged to around 20%, with CDU, AfD, and Greens clustered nearby. Traders assign the highest probability to an SPD result in the 10-13% band because late-deciding voters, turnout variations, and the 5% threshold dynamics continue to compress the party’s support relative to its 18.4% share in the 2023 repeat election. Any shift in coalition preference signals or final-week turnout could still separate the leading intervals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBerlin State Election: SPD Vote Share?
Berlin State Election: SPD Vote Share?
10-13% 40%
13-16% 30%
<10% 16.8%
16%+ 14%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
<10%
17%
10-13%
40%
13-16%
30%
16%+
14%
10-13% 40%
13-16% 30%
<10% 16.8%
16%+ 14%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
<10%
$618 Vol.
17%
10-13%
$953 Vol.
40%
13-16%
$666 Vol.
30%
16%+
$1,020 Vol.
14%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polls place the SPD at 12-15% in the September 20 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election, reflecting its position as the junior partner in the outgoing CDU-led coalition amid low public satisfaction with senate performance and a major power outage. Steffen Krach leads the SPD ticket while the CDU fields Stefan Evers after Kai Wegner’s withdrawal; meanwhile Die Linke has surged to around 20%, with CDU, AfD, and Greens clustered nearby. Traders assign the highest probability to an SPD result in the 10-13% band because late-deciding voters, turnout variations, and the 5% threshold dynamics continue to compress the party’s support relative to its 18.4% share in the 2023 repeat election. Any shift in coalition preference signals or final-week turnout could still separate the leading intervals.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 2:22 PM ET
Volume
$3,258End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polls place the SPD at 12-15% in the September 20 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election, reflecting its position as the junior partner in the outgoing CDU-led coalition amid low public satisfaction with senate performance and a major power outage. Steffen Krach leads the SPD ticket while the CDU fields Stefan Evers after Kai Wegner’s withdrawal; meanwhile Die Linke has surged to around 20%, with CDU, AfD, and Greens clustered nearby. Traders assign the highest probability to an SPD result in the 10-13% band because late-deciding voters, turnout variations, and the 5% threshold dynamics continue to compress the party’s support relative to its 18.4% share in the 2023 repeat election. Any shift in coalition preference signals or final-week turnout could still separate the leading intervals.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Volume
$3,258End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls place the SPD at 12-15% in the September 20 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election, reflecting its position as the junior partner in the outgoing CDU-led coalition amid low public satisfaction with senate performance and a major power outage. Steffen Krach leads the SPD ticket while the CDU fields Stefan Evers after Kai Wegner’s withdrawal; meanwhile Die Linke has surged to around 20%, with CDU, AfD, and Greens clustered nearby. Traders assign the highest probability to an SPD result in the 10-13% band because late-deciding voters, turnout variations, and the 5% threshold dynamics continue to compress the party’s support relative to its 18.4% share in the 2023 repeat election. Any shift in coalition preference signals or final-week turnout could still separate the leading intervals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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