The Swedish general election on September 13, 2026, produced a narrow opposition victory in the 349-seat Riksdag after days of supplementary counting of late advance and overseas ballots. The red-green bloc (Social Democrats, Left Party, Centre Party, Greens) secured 176 seats to the Tidö parties’ 173, a three-seat margin confirmed in the Election Authority’s preliminary tally released September 17, with turnout at 84.8 percent. Late-count shifts, including one mandate moving from Social Democrats to Left Party, locked in the outcome and prompted Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson’s resignation. Trader consensus heavily favors the opposition’s 3–4 seat edge because the full count has eliminated realistic paths for a Tidö reversal. Remaining uncertainty centers on formal certification in coming days or any procedural challenges during government formation talks led by Magdalena Andersson, though historical precedent shows such narrow results rarely change after preliminary tallies conclude.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOpposition by 3–4 97.8%
Opposition by 1–2 <1%
Opposition by 5–6 <1%
Opposition by 7+ <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
Opposition by 7+
<1%
Opposition by 5–6
<1%
Opposition by 3–4
98%
Opposition by 1–2
1%
Tidö by 1–2
<1%
Tidö by 3–4
<1%
Tidö by 5+
<1%
Opposition by 3–4 97.8%
Opposition by 1–2 <1%
Opposition by 5–6 <1%
Opposition by 7+ <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
Opposition by 7+
$966 Vol.
<1%
Opposition by 5–6
$205 Vol.
<1%
Opposition by 3–4
$2,692 Vol.
98%
Opposition by 1–2
$1,807 Vol.
1%
Tidö by 1–2
$1,217 Vol.
<1%
Tidö by 3–4
$426 Vol.
<1%
Tidö by 5+
$29 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections were held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the difference in the number of seats won in the Riksdag between the Tidö parties and the opposition parties in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election.
For the purposes of this market, the “Tidö parties” are the four signatories of the Tidö Agreement (Tidöavtalet): the Sweden Democrats (SD), the Moderate Party (M), the Christian Democrats (KD), and the Liberals (L).
For the purposes of this market, the “opposition parties” are the Social Democrats (S), the Left Party (V), the Green Party (MP), and the Centre Party (C).
Seats will be counted only where the final results attribute them to one of the eight named parties. Seats won by any party other than the eight named above will count toward neither group, regardless of any subsequent cooperation, endorsement, confidence agreement, or parliamentary-group arrangement.
If the Tidö parties and the opposition parties win an equal number of seats, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If the final results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the final results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).The Swedish general election on September 13, 2026, produced a narrow opposition victory in the 349-seat Riksdag after days of supplementary counting of late advance and overseas ballots. The red-green bloc (Social Democrats, Left Party, Centre Party, Greens) secured 176 seats to the Tidö parties’ 173, a three-seat margin confirmed in the Election Authority’s preliminary tally released September 17, with turnout at 84.8 percent. Late-count shifts, including one mandate moving from Social Democrats to Left Party, locked in the outcome and prompted Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson’s resignation. Trader consensus heavily favors the opposition’s 3–4 seat edge because the full count has eliminated realistic paths for a Tidö reversal. Remaining uncertainty centers on formal certification in coming days or any procedural challenges during government formation talks led by Magdalena Andersson, though historical precedent shows such narrow results rarely change after preliminary tallies conclude.
Parliamentary elections were held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the difference in the number of seats won in the Riksdag between the Tidö parties and the opposition parties in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election.
For the purposes of this market, the “Tidö parties” are the four signatories of the Tidö Agreement (Tidöavtalet): the Sweden Democrats (SD), the Moderate Party (M), the Christian Democrats (KD), and the Liberals (L).
For the purposes of this market, the “opposition parties” are the Social Democrats (S), the Left Party (V), the Green Party (MP), and the Centre Party (C).
Seats will be counted only where the final results attribute them to one of the eight named parties. Seats won by any party other than the eight named above will count toward neither group, regardless of any subsequent cooperation, endorsement, confidence agreement, or parliamentary-group arrangement.
If the Tidö parties and the opposition parties win an equal number of seats, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If the final results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the final results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve according to the difference in the number of seats won in the Riksdag between the Tidö parties and the opposition parties in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election.
For the purposes of this market, the “Tidö parties” are the four signatories of the Tidö Agreement (Tidöavtalet): the Sweden Democrats (SD), the Moderate Party (M), the Christian Democrats (KD), and the Liberals (L).
For the purposes of this market, the “opposition parties” are the Social Democrats (S), the Left Party (V), the Green Party (MP), and the Centre Party (C).
Seats will be counted only where the final results attribute them to one of the eight named parties. Seats won by any party other than the eight named above will count toward neither group, regardless of any subsequent cooperation, endorsement, confidence agreement, or parliamentary-group arrangement.
If the Tidö parties and the opposition parties win an equal number of seats, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If the final results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the final results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 12:25 PM ET
Volume
$7,342End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections were held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the difference in the number of seats won in the Riksdag between the Tidö parties and the opposition parties in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election.
For the purposes of this market, the “Tidö parties” are the four signatories of the Tidö Agreement (Tidöavtalet): the Sweden Democrats (SD), the Moderate Party (M), the Christian Democrats (KD), and the Liberals (L).
For the purposes of this market, the “opposition parties” are the Social Democrats (S), the Left Party (V), the Green Party (MP), and the Centre Party (C).
Seats will be counted only where the final results attribute them to one of the eight named parties. Seats won by any party other than the eight named above will count toward neither group, regardless of any subsequent cooperation, endorsement, confidence agreement, or parliamentary-group arrangement.
If the Tidö parties and the opposition parties win an equal number of seats, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If the final results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the final results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).The Swedish general election on September 13, 2026, produced a narrow opposition victory in the 349-seat Riksdag after days of supplementary counting of late advance and overseas ballots. The red-green bloc (Social Democrats, Left Party, Centre Party, Greens) secured 176 seats to the Tidö parties’ 173, a three-seat margin confirmed in the Election Authority’s preliminary tally released September 17, with turnout at 84.8 percent. Late-count shifts, including one mandate moving from Social Democrats to Left Party, locked in the outcome and prompted Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson’s resignation. Trader consensus heavily favors the opposition’s 3–4 seat edge because the full count has eliminated realistic paths for a Tidö reversal. Remaining uncertainty centers on formal certification in coming days or any procedural challenges during government formation talks led by Magdalena Andersson, though historical precedent shows such narrow results rarely change after preliminary tallies conclude.
Parliamentary elections were held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the difference in the number of seats won in the Riksdag between the Tidö parties and the opposition parties in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election.
For the purposes of this market, the “Tidö parties” are the four signatories of the Tidö Agreement (Tidöavtalet): the Sweden Democrats (SD), the Moderate Party (M), the Christian Democrats (KD), and the Liberals (L).
For the purposes of this market, the “opposition parties” are the Social Democrats (S), the Left Party (V), the Green Party (MP), and the Centre Party (C).
Seats will be counted only where the final results attribute them to one of the eight named parties. Seats won by any party other than the eight named above will count toward neither group, regardless of any subsequent cooperation, endorsement, confidence agreement, or parliamentary-group arrangement.
If the Tidö parties and the opposition parties win an equal number of seats, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If the final results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the final results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve according to the difference in the number of seats won in the Riksdag between the Tidö parties and the opposition parties in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election.
For the purposes of this market, the “Tidö parties” are the four signatories of the Tidö Agreement (Tidöavtalet): the Sweden Democrats (SD), the Moderate Party (M), the Christian Democrats (KD), and the Liberals (L).
For the purposes of this market, the “opposition parties” are the Social Democrats (S), the Left Party (V), the Green Party (MP), and the Centre Party (C).
Seats will be counted only where the final results attribute them to one of the eight named parties. Seats won by any party other than the eight named above will count toward neither group, regardless of any subsequent cooperation, endorsement, confidence agreement, or parliamentary-group arrangement.
If the Tidö parties and the opposition parties win an equal number of seats, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If the final results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the final results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Volume
$7,342End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Swedish general election on September 13, 2026, produced a narrow opposition victory in the 349-seat Riksdag after days of supplementary counting of late advance and overseas ballots. The red-green bloc (Social Democrats, Left Party, Centre Party, Greens) secured 176 seats to the Tidö parties’ 173, a three-seat margin confirmed in the Election Authority’s preliminary tally released September 17, with turnout at 84.8 percent. Late-count shifts, including one mandate moving from Social Democrats to Left Party, locked in the outcome and prompted Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson’s resignation. Trader consensus heavily favors the opposition’s 3–4 seat edge because the full count has eliminated realistic paths for a Tidö reversal. Remaining uncertainty centers on formal certification in coming days or any procedural challenges during government formation talks led by Magdalena Andersson, though historical precedent shows such narrow results rarely change after preliminary tallies conclude.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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