**Recent Swedish polling shows Kristdemokraterna (KD) hovering near or above the 6% threshold in the final weeks before the September 13, 2026, parliamentary election, supporting the 59.5% implied probability for “Over.”** Latest surveys indicate mixed but generally stabilizing or improving results for the party: Indikator Opinion (Aug 6–23) placed KD at 5.8%, Ipsos near 6.1%, Verian and Novus around 6.2–6.3%, while the most recent Demoskop poll (fielded Aug 13–24) showed a notable rise to 8.5%—its highest level in years. This positioning reflects KD’s incremental gains during the campaign, driven by leader Ebba Busch’s emphasis on family policy, women’s health, and a “right with heart” message that has drawn some support from Moderate Party voters. The Tidö bloc overall has narrowed the opposition’s lead in recent surveys (now around 4.7–7 points depending on the pollster), though KD remains one of the smaller coalition partners alongside the Moderates and Liberals. With the election imminent, late shifts in turnout or bloc dynamics could still influence whether KD clears 6%, consistent with trader consensus pricing modest upside risk in the final stretch.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSweden Parliamentary Election: KD Over/Under 6%?
Sweden Parliamentary Election: KD Over/Under 6%?
Over
61% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
Over
61% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins at least 6% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins less than 6% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).**Recent Swedish polling shows Kristdemokraterna (KD) hovering near or above the 6% threshold in the final weeks before the September 13, 2026, parliamentary election, supporting the 59.5% implied probability for “Over.”** Latest surveys indicate mixed but generally stabilizing or improving results for the party: Indikator Opinion (Aug 6–23) placed KD at 5.8%, Ipsos near 6.1%, Verian and Novus around 6.2–6.3%, while the most recent Demoskop poll (fielded Aug 13–24) showed a notable rise to 8.5%—its highest level in years.
This positioning reflects KD’s incremental gains during the campaign, driven by leader Ebba Busch’s emphasis on family policy, women’s health, and a “right with heart” message that has drawn some support from Moderate Party voters. The Tidö bloc overall has narrowed the opposition’s lead in recent surveys (now around 4.7–7 points depending on the pollster), though KD remains one of the smaller coalition partners alongside the Moderates and Liberals. With the election imminent, late shifts in turnout or bloc dynamics could still influence whether KD clears 6%, consistent with trader consensus pricing modest upside risk in the final stretch.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins at least 6% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins less than 6% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins at least 6% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins less than 6% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 5:39 AM ET
Volume
$823End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 5:39 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins at least 6% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins less than 6% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).**Recent Swedish polling shows Kristdemokraterna (KD) hovering near or above the 6% threshold in the final weeks before the September 13, 2026, parliamentary election, supporting the 59.5% implied probability for “Over.”** Latest surveys indicate mixed but generally stabilizing or improving results for the party: Indikator Opinion (Aug 6–23) placed KD at 5.8%, Ipsos near 6.1%, Verian and Novus around 6.2–6.3%, while the most recent Demoskop poll (fielded Aug 13–24) showed a notable rise to 8.5%—its highest level in years.
This positioning reflects KD’s incremental gains during the campaign, driven by leader Ebba Busch’s emphasis on family policy, women’s health, and a “right with heart” message that has drawn some support from Moderate Party voters. The Tidö bloc overall has narrowed the opposition’s lead in recent surveys (now around 4.7–7 points depending on the pollster), though KD remains one of the smaller coalition partners alongside the Moderates and Liberals. With the election imminent, late shifts in turnout or bloc dynamics could still influence whether KD clears 6%, consistent with trader consensus pricing modest upside risk in the final stretch.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins at least 6% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins less than 6% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins at least 6% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins less than 6% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Volume
$823End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 5:39 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent Swedish polling shows Kristdemokraterna (KD) hovering near or above the 6% threshold in the final weeks before the September 13, 2026, parliamentary election, supporting the 59.5% implied probability for “Over.”** Latest surveys indicate mixed but generally stabilizing or improving results for the party: Indikator Opinion (Aug 6–23) placed KD at 5.8%, Ipsos near 6.1%, Verian and Novus around 6.2–6.3%, while the most recent Demoskop poll (fielded Aug 13–24) showed a notable rise to 8.5%—its highest level in years. This positioning reflects KD’s incremental gains during the campaign, driven by leader Ebba Busch’s emphasis on family policy, women’s health, and a “right with heart” message that has drawn some support from Moderate Party voters. The Tidö bloc overall has narrowed the opposition’s lead in recent surveys (now around 4.7–7 points depending on the pollster), though KD remains one of the smaller coalition partners alongside the Moderates and Liberals. With the election imminent, late shifts in turnout or bloc dynamics could still influence whether KD clears 6%, consistent with trader consensus pricing modest upside risk in the final stretch.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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