**Recent polling averages place Sweden Democrats (SD) support near or slightly above 19% ahead of the September 13 parliamentary election, supporting the 58.5% implied probability on the Over side.** Latest surveys show SD at 18.3% (Demoskop, Aug 27), 19.3% (Ipsos, Aug 26), and 19.7% (Indikator, Aug 26), with weighted averages around 19.2–19.3%. The Tidö bloc (Moderates, Christian Democrats, Liberals, backed by SD) has narrowed the opposition’s lead to roughly 4.7–7 points in recent readings, down from larger gaps earlier in summer, as Moderates gain modestly while Social Democrats ease. Campaign focus on crime, immigration, security, and cost-of-living issues continues to shape voter priorities, with SD maintaining its core base on migration and law-and-order themes amid coalition tensions, including SD statements on Liberal threshold survival. These patterns align with trader consensus reflecting SD’s position straddling the 19% line in the final weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOver
59% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
Over
59% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Sweden Democrats (SD) wins at least 19% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Sweden Democrats (SD) wins less than 19% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).**Recent polling averages place Sweden Democrats (SD) support near or slightly above 19% ahead of the September 13 parliamentary election, supporting the 58.5% implied probability on the Over side.**
Latest surveys show SD at 18.3% (Demoskop, Aug 27), 19.3% (Ipsos, Aug 26), and 19.7% (Indikator, Aug 26), with weighted averages around 19.2–19.3%. The Tidö bloc (Moderates, Christian Democrats, Liberals, backed by SD) has narrowed the opposition’s lead to roughly 4.7–7 points in recent readings, down from larger gaps earlier in summer, as Moderates gain modestly while Social Democrats ease. Campaign focus on crime, immigration, security, and cost-of-living issues continues to shape voter priorities, with SD maintaining its core base on migration and law-and-order themes amid coalition tensions, including SD statements on Liberal threshold survival. These patterns align with trader consensus reflecting SD’s position straddling the 19% line in the final weeks.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Sweden Democrats (SD) wins at least 19% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Sweden Democrats (SD) wins less than 19% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if Sweden Democrats (SD) wins at least 19% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Sweden Democrats (SD) wins less than 19% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 5:37 AM ET
Volume
$1,186End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 5:37 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Sweden Democrats (SD) wins at least 19% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Sweden Democrats (SD) wins less than 19% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).**Recent polling averages place Sweden Democrats (SD) support near or slightly above 19% ahead of the September 13 parliamentary election, supporting the 58.5% implied probability on the Over side.**
Latest surveys show SD at 18.3% (Demoskop, Aug 27), 19.3% (Ipsos, Aug 26), and 19.7% (Indikator, Aug 26), with weighted averages around 19.2–19.3%. The Tidö bloc (Moderates, Christian Democrats, Liberals, backed by SD) has narrowed the opposition’s lead to roughly 4.7–7 points in recent readings, down from larger gaps earlier in summer, as Moderates gain modestly while Social Democrats ease. Campaign focus on crime, immigration, security, and cost-of-living issues continues to shape voter priorities, with SD maintaining its core base on migration and law-and-order themes amid coalition tensions, including SD statements on Liberal threshold survival. These patterns align with trader consensus reflecting SD’s position straddling the 19% line in the final weeks.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Sweden Democrats (SD) wins at least 19% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Sweden Democrats (SD) wins less than 19% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if Sweden Democrats (SD) wins at least 19% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Sweden Democrats (SD) wins less than 19% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Volume
$1,186End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 5:37 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent polling averages place Sweden Democrats (SD) support near or slightly above 19% ahead of the September 13 parliamentary election, supporting the 58.5% implied probability on the Over side.** Latest surveys show SD at 18.3% (Demoskop, Aug 27), 19.3% (Ipsos, Aug 26), and 19.7% (Indikator, Aug 26), with weighted averages around 19.2–19.3%. The Tidö bloc (Moderates, Christian Democrats, Liberals, backed by SD) has narrowed the opposition’s lead to roughly 4.7–7 points in recent readings, down from larger gaps earlier in summer, as Moderates gain modestly while Social Democrats ease. Campaign focus on crime, immigration, security, and cost-of-living issues continues to shape voter priorities, with SD maintaining its core base on migration and law-and-order themes amid coalition tensions, including SD statements on Liberal threshold survival. These patterns align with trader consensus reflecting SD’s position straddling the 19% line in the final weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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