Recent polls place Sweden’s Moderate Party (Moderaterna, M) near or slightly above 17-18 percent support, with the latest Indikator Opinion survey (August 23) at 18.9 percent and Demoskop at 17.2 percent, yielding a polling average around 17.9 percent. The party, led by incumbent Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson under the Tidö Agreement, has recorded modest gains in August amid a tightening race between the right-leaning bloc and centre-left opposition ahead of the September 13 parliamentary election. Campaign emphasis on security, crime, immigration, and energy has coincided with M closing the gap on the Sweden Democrats while the overall right-wing side narrows its deficit. These developments underpin trader consensus favoring an outcome above 17 percent, though final results remain subject to turnout and late shifts in voter blocs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOver
65% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
Over
65% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Moderate Party (M) wins at least 17% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Moderate Party (M) wins less than 17% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Recent polls place Sweden’s Moderate Party (Moderaterna, M) near or slightly above 17-18 percent support, with the latest Indikator Opinion survey (August 23) at 18.9 percent and Demoskop at 17.2 percent, yielding a polling average around 17.9 percent. The party, led by incumbent Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson under the Tidö Agreement, has recorded modest gains in August amid a tightening race between the right-leaning bloc and centre-left opposition ahead of the September 13 parliamentary election. Campaign emphasis on security, crime, immigration, and energy has coincided with M closing the gap on the Sweden Democrats while the overall right-wing side narrows its deficit. These developments underpin trader consensus favoring an outcome above 17 percent, though final results remain subject to turnout and late shifts in voter blocs.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Moderate Party (M) wins at least 17% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Moderate Party (M) wins less than 17% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if Moderate Party (M) wins at least 17% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Moderate Party (M) wins less than 17% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 5:38 AM ET
Volume
$713End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 5:38 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Moderate Party (M) wins at least 17% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Moderate Party (M) wins less than 17% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Recent polls place Sweden’s Moderate Party (Moderaterna, M) near or slightly above 17-18 percent support, with the latest Indikator Opinion survey (August 23) at 18.9 percent and Demoskop at 17.2 percent, yielding a polling average around 17.9 percent. The party, led by incumbent Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson under the Tidö Agreement, has recorded modest gains in August amid a tightening race between the right-leaning bloc and centre-left opposition ahead of the September 13 parliamentary election. Campaign emphasis on security, crime, immigration, and energy has coincided with M closing the gap on the Sweden Democrats while the overall right-wing side narrows its deficit. These developments underpin trader consensus favoring an outcome above 17 percent, though final results remain subject to turnout and late shifts in voter blocs.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Moderate Party (M) wins at least 17% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Moderate Party (M) wins less than 17% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if Moderate Party (M) wins at least 17% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Moderate Party (M) wins less than 17% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Volume
$713End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 5:38 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polls place Sweden’s Moderate Party (Moderaterna, M) near or slightly above 17-18 percent support, with the latest Indikator Opinion survey (August 23) at 18.9 percent and Demoskop at 17.2 percent, yielding a polling average around 17.9 percent. The party, led by incumbent Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson under the Tidö Agreement, has recorded modest gains in August amid a tightening race between the right-leaning bloc and centre-left opposition ahead of the September 13 parliamentary election. Campaign emphasis on security, crime, immigration, and energy has coincided with M closing the gap on the Sweden Democrats while the overall right-wing side narrows its deficit. These developments underpin trader consensus favoring an outcome above 17 percent, though final results remain subject to turnout and late shifts in voter blocs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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