**Recent Swedish opinion polls place Vänsterpartiet (V) support near or slightly below the 7% threshold ahead of the September 13 parliamentary election.** Multiple August surveys show V at 6.8% (Demoskop), 7.4% (Novus), 7.6% (Indikator Opinion), and 7.7% (Verian), producing a polling average around 7.3%. Earlier June readings were often higher (7.8–8.9%), indicating modest softening as the campaign focuses on cost-of-living, security, immigration, and energy issues. The opposition bloc (including V) maintains a lead that has narrowed from roughly 9 points in June to 4.7–7 points in late August, with small parties like V sensitive to bloc dynamics and turnout shifts. The 4% national threshold and seat allocation mechanics amplify volatility for parties polling close to 7%. Traders appear to weigh the risk of a final dip below 7% more heavily than a surge above it, given the mixed recent readings and limited remaining campaign time.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOver
55% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
Over
55% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Left Party (V) wins at least 7% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Left Party (V) wins less than 7% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).**Recent Swedish opinion polls place Vänsterpartiet (V) support near or slightly below the 7% threshold ahead of the September 13 parliamentary election.** Multiple August surveys show V at 6.8% (Demoskop), 7.4% (Novus), 7.6% (Indikator Opinion), and 7.7% (Verian), producing a polling average around 7.3%. Earlier June readings were often higher (7.8–8.9%), indicating modest softening as the campaign focuses on cost-of-living, security, immigration, and energy issues.
The opposition bloc (including V) maintains a lead that has narrowed from roughly 9 points in June to 4.7–7 points in late August, with small parties like V sensitive to bloc dynamics and turnout shifts. The 4% national threshold and seat allocation mechanics amplify volatility for parties polling close to 7%. Traders appear to weigh the risk of a final dip below 7% more heavily than a surge above it, given the mixed recent readings and limited remaining campaign time.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Left Party (V) wins at least 7% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Left Party (V) wins less than 7% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if Left Party (V) wins at least 7% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Left Party (V) wins less than 7% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 5:38 AM ET
Volume
$4,631End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 5:38 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Left Party (V) wins at least 7% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Left Party (V) wins less than 7% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).**Recent Swedish opinion polls place Vänsterpartiet (V) support near or slightly below the 7% threshold ahead of the September 13 parliamentary election.** Multiple August surveys show V at 6.8% (Demoskop), 7.4% (Novus), 7.6% (Indikator Opinion), and 7.7% (Verian), producing a polling average around 7.3%. Earlier June readings were often higher (7.8–8.9%), indicating modest softening as the campaign focuses on cost-of-living, security, immigration, and energy issues.
The opposition bloc (including V) maintains a lead that has narrowed from roughly 9 points in June to 4.7–7 points in late August, with small parties like V sensitive to bloc dynamics and turnout shifts. The 4% national threshold and seat allocation mechanics amplify volatility for parties polling close to 7%. Traders appear to weigh the risk of a final dip below 7% more heavily than a surge above it, given the mixed recent readings and limited remaining campaign time.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Left Party (V) wins at least 7% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Left Party (V) wins less than 7% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if Left Party (V) wins at least 7% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Left Party (V) wins less than 7% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Volume
$4,631End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 5:38 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent Swedish opinion polls place Vänsterpartiet (V) support near or slightly below the 7% threshold ahead of the September 13 parliamentary election.** Multiple August surveys show V at 6.8% (Demoskop), 7.4% (Novus), 7.6% (Indikator Opinion), and 7.7% (Verian), producing a polling average around 7.3%. Earlier June readings were often higher (7.8–8.9%), indicating modest softening as the campaign focuses on cost-of-living, security, immigration, and energy issues. The opposition bloc (including V) maintains a lead that has narrowed from roughly 9 points in June to 4.7–7 points in late August, with small parties like V sensitive to bloc dynamics and turnout shifts. The 4% national threshold and seat allocation mechanics amplify volatility for parties polling close to 7%. Traders appear to weigh the risk of a final dip below 7% more heavily than a surge above it, given the mixed recent readings and limited remaining campaign time.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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