Recent polling averages for Berlin’s September 20, 2026, Abgeordnetenhaus election place the SPD at 12–15 percent, down sharply from its 18.4 percent result in the 2023 repeat vote. As the junior partner in the outgoing CDU-SPD coalition, the party has seen support erode amid broader voter dissatisfaction with the state government and rising strength for Die Linke (now polling near 20–22 percent), the CDU, and AfD. Consistent surveys from Forsa, INSA, Infratest dimap, and Civey through mid-to-late August show the SPD rarely exceeding 15 percent while struggling to mobilize traditional voters in a fragmented field. These results underpin trader consensus that a final share in the 10–16 percent range is the most probable outcome, with limited scope for late recovery before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBerlin State Election: SPD Vote Share?
Berlin State Election: SPD Vote Share?
10-13% 41%
13-16% 29%
16%+ 14%
<10% 14.2%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
<10%
14%
10-13%
41%
13-16%
31%
16%+
14%
10-13% 41%
13-16% 29%
16%+ 14%
<10% 14.2%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
<10%
$618 Vol.
14%
10-13%
$953 Vol.
41%
13-16%
$666 Vol.
31%
16%+
$1,020 Vol.
14%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling averages for Berlin’s September 20, 2026, Abgeordnetenhaus election place the SPD at 12–15 percent, down sharply from its 18.4 percent result in the 2023 repeat vote. As the junior partner in the outgoing CDU-SPD coalition, the party has seen support erode amid broader voter dissatisfaction with the state government and rising strength for Die Linke (now polling near 20–22 percent), the CDU, and AfD. Consistent surveys from Forsa, INSA, Infratest dimap, and Civey through mid-to-late August show the SPD rarely exceeding 15 percent while struggling to mobilize traditional voters in a fragmented field. These results underpin trader consensus that a final share in the 10–16 percent range is the most probable outcome, with limited scope for late recovery before election day.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 2:22 PM ET
Volume
$3,258End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling averages for Berlin’s September 20, 2026, Abgeordnetenhaus election place the SPD at 12–15 percent, down sharply from its 18.4 percent result in the 2023 repeat vote. As the junior partner in the outgoing CDU-SPD coalition, the party has seen support erode amid broader voter dissatisfaction with the state government and rising strength for Die Linke (now polling near 20–22 percent), the CDU, and AfD. Consistent surveys from Forsa, INSA, Infratest dimap, and Civey through mid-to-late August show the SPD rarely exceeding 15 percent while struggling to mobilize traditional voters in a fragmented field. These results underpin trader consensus that a final share in the 10–16 percent range is the most probable outcome, with limited scope for late recovery before election day.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Volume
$3,258End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling averages for Berlin’s September 20, 2026, Abgeordnetenhaus election place the SPD at 12–15 percent, down sharply from its 18.4 percent result in the 2023 repeat vote. As the junior partner in the outgoing CDU-SPD coalition, the party has seen support erode amid broader voter dissatisfaction with the state government and rising strength for Die Linke (now polling near 20–22 percent), the CDU, and AfD. Consistent surveys from Forsa, INSA, Infratest dimap, and Civey through mid-to-late August show the SPD rarely exceeding 15 percent while struggling to mobilize traditional voters in a fragmented field. These results underpin trader consensus that a final share in the 10–16 percent range is the most probable outcome, with limited scope for late recovery before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions