China’s official 2026 GDP target of 4.5–5.0% and H1 growth of 4.7% anchor trader expectations, with Q2 slowing to 4.3% amid weak domestic demand, soft consumption, and ongoing property adjustment. Resilient exports—particularly AI-related and high-tech goods—along with public infrastructure spending have provided the main offset, keeping full-year consensus forecasts clustered between 4.4% and 4.7% from institutions such as the IMF, World Bank, and major banks. Recent July data showing demand-driven weakness revived expectations for monetary and fiscal easing, while the 15th Five-Year Plan emphasizes longer-term consumption support without immediate large-scale stimulus. These dynamics reinforce the market’s strong preference for the 4.0–5.0% range, as external demand and policy calibration continue to counter structural headwinds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4.0–5.0% 89%
5.0–6.0% 7.6%
3.0–4.0% 1.1%
8.0–9.0% <1%
$882,823 Vol.
$882,823 Vol.
Jan 30, 2027
<1.0%
<1%
1.0–2.0%
<1%
2.0–3.0%
<1%
3.0–4.0%
1%
4.0–5.0%
89%
5.0–6.0%
8%
6.0-7.0%
<1%
7.0–8.0%
<1%
8.0–9.0%
<1%
9.0%+
<1%
4.0–5.0% 89%
5.0–6.0% 7.6%
3.0–4.0% 1.1%
8.0–9.0% <1%
$882,823 Vol.
$882,823 Vol.
Jan 30, 2027
<1.0%
$64,833 Vol.
<1%
1.0–2.0%
$74,124 Vol.
<1%
2.0–3.0%
$44,776 Vol.
<1%
3.0–4.0%
$81,259 Vol.
1%
4.0–5.0%
$221,872 Vol.
89%
5.0–6.0%
$80,645 Vol.
8%
6.0-7.0%
$83,592 Vol.
<1%
7.0–8.0%
$62,549 Vol.
<1%
8.0–9.0%
$53,104 Vol.
<1%
9.0%+
$116,070 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China’s official 2026 GDP target of 4.5–5.0% and H1 growth of 4.7% anchor trader expectations, with Q2 slowing to 4.3% amid weak domestic demand, soft consumption, and ongoing property adjustment. Resilient exports—particularly AI-related and high-tech goods—along with public infrastructure spending have provided the main offset, keeping full-year consensus forecasts clustered between 4.4% and 4.7% from institutions such as the IMF, World Bank, and major banks. Recent July data showing demand-driven weakness revived expectations for monetary and fiscal easing, while the 15th Five-Year Plan emphasizes longer-term consumption support without immediate large-scale stimulus. These dynamics reinforce the market’s strong preference for the 4.0–5.0% range, as external demand and policy calibration continue to counter structural headwinds.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Volume
$882,823End Date
Jan 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China’s official 2026 GDP target of 4.5–5.0% and H1 growth of 4.7% anchor trader expectations, with Q2 slowing to 4.3% amid weak domestic demand, soft consumption, and ongoing property adjustment. Resilient exports—particularly AI-related and high-tech goods—along with public infrastructure spending have provided the main offset, keeping full-year consensus forecasts clustered between 4.4% and 4.7% from institutions such as the IMF, World Bank, and major banks. Recent July data showing demand-driven weakness revived expectations for monetary and fiscal easing, while the 15th Five-Year Plan emphasizes longer-term consumption support without immediate large-scale stimulus. These dynamics reinforce the market’s strong preference for the 4.0–5.0% range, as external demand and policy calibration continue to counter structural headwinds.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$882,823End Date
Jan 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...China’s official 2026 GDP target of 4.5–5.0% and H1 growth of 4.7% anchor trader expectations, with Q2 slowing to 4.3% amid weak domestic demand, soft consumption, and ongoing property adjustment. Resilient exports—particularly AI-related and high-tech goods—along with public infrastructure spending have provided the main offset, keeping full-year consensus forecasts clustered between 4.4% and 4.7% from institutions such as the IMF, World Bank, and major banks. Recent July data showing demand-driven weakness revived expectations for monetary and fiscal easing, while the 15th Five-Year Plan emphasizes longer-term consumption support without immediate large-scale stimulus. These dynamics reinforce the market’s strong preference for the 4.0–5.0% range, as external demand and policy calibration continue to counter structural headwinds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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