China’s 2026 GDP growth has tracked 4.7% year-on-year through the first half, with Q1 at 5.0% and Q2 at 4.3%, placing the full-year outcome squarely inside the 4.0–5.0% band that commands 88.5% market probability. July indicators showed further softening in industrial output, retail sales, and fixed-asset investment, prompting Goldman Sachs and others to estimate early-Q3 momentum near 4%, below Beijing’s 4.5–5.0% target. Weak domestic demand, the ongoing property adjustment, and subdued consumption remain the primary drags, while resilient exports, high-tech manufacturing, and equipment investment continue to provide support. Policymakers have responded with accelerated fiscal bond issuance, expanded consumption subsidies, and expectations of additional monetary easing, measures that traders view as sufficient to keep annual growth within the current range absent a sharper external shock. Longer-term forecasts from the IMF (4.6%), World Bank (4.4%), and major banks cluster around 4.4–4.8%, reinforcing the narrow band as the consensus outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4.0–5.0% 89%
5.0–6.0% 7.6%
3.0–4.0% 1.1%
8.0–9.0% <1%
$882,823 Vol.
$882,823 Vol.
Jan 30, 2027
<1.0%
<1%
1.0–2.0%
<1%
2.0–3.0%
<1%
3.0–4.0%
1%
4.0–5.0%
89%
5.0–6.0%
8%
6.0-7.0%
<1%
7.0–8.0%
<1%
8.0–9.0%
<1%
9.0%+
<1%
4.0–5.0% 89%
5.0–6.0% 7.6%
3.0–4.0% 1.1%
8.0–9.0% <1%
$882,823 Vol.
$882,823 Vol.
Jan 30, 2027
<1.0%
$64,833 Vol.
<1%
1.0–2.0%
$74,124 Vol.
<1%
2.0–3.0%
$44,776 Vol.
<1%
3.0–4.0%
$81,259 Vol.
1%
4.0–5.0%
$221,872 Vol.
89%
5.0–6.0%
$80,645 Vol.
8%
6.0-7.0%
$83,592 Vol.
<1%
7.0–8.0%
$62,549 Vol.
<1%
8.0–9.0%
$53,104 Vol.
<1%
9.0%+
$116,070 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China’s 2026 GDP growth has tracked 4.7% year-on-year through the first half, with Q1 at 5.0% and Q2 at 4.3%, placing the full-year outcome squarely inside the 4.0–5.0% band that commands 88.5% market probability. July indicators showed further softening in industrial output, retail sales, and fixed-asset investment, prompting Goldman Sachs and others to estimate early-Q3 momentum near 4%, below Beijing’s 4.5–5.0% target. Weak domestic demand, the ongoing property adjustment, and subdued consumption remain the primary drags, while resilient exports, high-tech manufacturing, and equipment investment continue to provide support. Policymakers have responded with accelerated fiscal bond issuance, expanded consumption subsidies, and expectations of additional monetary easing, measures that traders view as sufficient to keep annual growth within the current range absent a sharper external shock. Longer-term forecasts from the IMF (4.6%), World Bank (4.4%), and major banks cluster around 4.4–4.8%, reinforcing the narrow band as the consensus outcome.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Volume
$882,823End Date
Jan 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China’s 2026 GDP growth has tracked 4.7% year-on-year through the first half, with Q1 at 5.0% and Q2 at 4.3%, placing the full-year outcome squarely inside the 4.0–5.0% band that commands 88.5% market probability. July indicators showed further softening in industrial output, retail sales, and fixed-asset investment, prompting Goldman Sachs and others to estimate early-Q3 momentum near 4%, below Beijing’s 4.5–5.0% target. Weak domestic demand, the ongoing property adjustment, and subdued consumption remain the primary drags, while resilient exports, high-tech manufacturing, and equipment investment continue to provide support. Policymakers have responded with accelerated fiscal bond issuance, expanded consumption subsidies, and expectations of additional monetary easing, measures that traders view as sufficient to keep annual growth within the current range absent a sharper external shock. Longer-term forecasts from the IMF (4.6%), World Bank (4.4%), and major banks cluster around 4.4–4.8%, reinforcing the narrow band as the consensus outcome.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$882,823End Date
Jan 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...China’s 2026 GDP growth has tracked 4.7% year-on-year through the first half, with Q1 at 5.0% and Q2 at 4.3%, placing the full-year outcome squarely inside the 4.0–5.0% band that commands 88.5% market probability. July indicators showed further softening in industrial output, retail sales, and fixed-asset investment, prompting Goldman Sachs and others to estimate early-Q3 momentum near 4%, below Beijing’s 4.5–5.0% target. Weak domestic demand, the ongoing property adjustment, and subdued consumption remain the primary drags, while resilient exports, high-tech manufacturing, and equipment investment continue to provide support. Policymakers have responded with accelerated fiscal bond issuance, expanded consumption subsidies, and expectations of additional monetary easing, measures that traders view as sufficient to keep annual growth within the current range absent a sharper external shock. Longer-term forecasts from the IMF (4.6%), World Bank (4.4%), and major banks cluster around 4.4–4.8%, reinforcing the narrow band as the consensus outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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