The dominant trader consensus favoring cancellation of the 2026 United Left primary reflects the Socialist Party's July 2026 member vote for a closed internal primary, which rejected broader participation alongside the Ecologists, L'Après, and Debout!. La France Insoumise and Place Publique had already declined involvement from the outset. In August 2026, LFI coordinator Manuel Bompard publicly declared the initiative had "definitively failed," citing Marine Tondelier's shift away from the process, while internal divisions and municipal election outcomes further eroded support. This leaves only a narrow set of smaller groups committed, making the October 11 vote improbable. Late reversals by the PS or coordinated withdrawals by remaining participants could still alter the outcome before any formal resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCanceled 93.3%
Marine Tondelier 1.4%
François Ruffin 1.1%
Clémentine Autain <1%
$210,956 Vol.
$210,956 Vol.
Oct 10, 2026
Canceled
93%
Marine Tondelier
1%
François Ruffin
1%
Clémentine Autain
1%
Benjamin Lucas-Lundy
<1%
Lydie Massard
<1%
Canceled 93.3%
Marine Tondelier 1.4%
François Ruffin 1.1%
Clémentine Autain <1%
$210,956 Vol.
$210,956 Vol.
Oct 10, 2026
Canceled
$75,243 Vol.
93%
Marine Tondelier
$49,788 Vol.
1%
François Ruffin
$31,112 Vol.
1%
Clémentine Autain
$7,369 Vol.
1%
Benjamin Lucas-Lundy
$4,216 Vol.
<1%
Lydie Massard
$43,228 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.The dominant trader consensus favoring cancellation of the 2026 United Left primary reflects the Socialist Party's July 2026 member vote for a closed internal primary, which rejected broader participation alongside the Ecologists, L'Après, and Debout!. La France Insoumise and Place Publique had already declined involvement from the outset. In August 2026, LFI coordinator Manuel Bompard publicly declared the initiative had "definitively failed," citing Marine Tondelier's shift away from the process, while internal divisions and municipal election outcomes further eroded support. This leaves only a narrow set of smaller groups committed, making the October 11 vote improbable. Late reversals by the PS or coordinated withdrawals by remaining participants could still alter the outcome before any formal resolution.
The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Market Opened: May 5, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
Volume
$210,956End Date
Oct 11, 2026Market Opened
May 5, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.The dominant trader consensus favoring cancellation of the 2026 United Left primary reflects the Socialist Party's July 2026 member vote for a closed internal primary, which rejected broader participation alongside the Ecologists, L'Après, and Debout!. La France Insoumise and Place Publique had already declined involvement from the outset. In August 2026, LFI coordinator Manuel Bompard publicly declared the initiative had "definitively failed," citing Marine Tondelier's shift away from the process, while internal divisions and municipal election outcomes further eroded support. This leaves only a narrow set of smaller groups committed, making the October 11 vote improbable. Late reversals by the PS or coordinated withdrawals by remaining participants could still alter the outcome before any formal resolution.
The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$210,956End Date
Oct 11, 2026Market Opened
May 5, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The dominant trader consensus favoring cancellation of the 2026 United Left primary reflects the Socialist Party's July 2026 member vote for a closed internal primary, which rejected broader participation alongside the Ecologists, L'Après, and Debout!. La France Insoumise and Place Publique had already declined involvement from the outset. In August 2026, LFI coordinator Manuel Bompard publicly declared the initiative had "definitively failed," citing Marine Tondelier's shift away from the process, while internal divisions and municipal election outcomes further eroded support. This leaves only a narrow set of smaller groups committed, making the October 11 vote improbable. Late reversals by the PS or coordinated withdrawals by remaining participants could still alter the outcome before any formal resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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