Recent forecast guidance from multiple models points to a peak temperature in Shenzhen on August 28 of 31–33 °C amid humid subtropical conditions typical of late summer, with scattered thunderstorms and cloud cover expected to moderate daytime heating. Persistent monsoon moisture and weak steering winds favor convective development that could suppress the maximum if rain arrives earlier or lingers longer than currently modeled, creating the tight clustering of trader-implied probabilities around 31–33 °C. Historical August averages near 32 °C provide limited additional signal given interannual variability in rainfall timing. Updated runs from global ensembles over the next 24 hours will likely resolve much of the remaining spread before market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shenzhen on August 28?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 28?
32°C 32%
33°C 24%
31°C 19%
34°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
3%
30°C
7%
31°C
19%
32°C
32%
33°C
24%
34°C
12%
35°C
4%
36°C or higher
1%
32°C 32%
33°C 24%
31°C 19%
34°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
26°C or below
$180 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$208 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$195 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$334 Vol.
3%
30°C
$166 Vol.
7%
31°C
$33 Vol.
19%
32°C
$26 Vol.
32%
33°C
$117 Vol.
24%
34°C
$145 Vol.
12%
35°C
$360 Vol.
4%
36°C or higher
$65 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from multiple models points to a peak temperature in Shenzhen on August 28 of 31–33 °C amid humid subtropical conditions typical of late summer, with scattered thunderstorms and cloud cover expected to moderate daytime heating. Persistent monsoon moisture and weak steering winds favor convective development that could suppress the maximum if rain arrives earlier or lingers longer than currently modeled, creating the tight clustering of trader-implied probabilities around 31–33 °C. Historical August averages near 32 °C provide limited additional signal given interannual variability in rainfall timing. Updated runs from global ensembles over the next 24 hours will likely resolve much of the remaining spread before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$1,830End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from multiple models points to a peak temperature in Shenzhen on August 28 of 31–33 °C amid humid subtropical conditions typical of late summer, with scattered thunderstorms and cloud cover expected to moderate daytime heating. Persistent monsoon moisture and weak steering winds favor convective development that could suppress the maximum if rain arrives earlier or lingers longer than currently modeled, creating the tight clustering of trader-implied probabilities around 31–33 °C. Historical August averages near 32 °C provide limited additional signal given interannual variability in rainfall timing. Updated runs from global ensembles over the next 24 hours will likely resolve much of the remaining spread before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,830End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast guidance from multiple models points to a peak temperature in Shenzhen on August 28 of 31–33 °C amid humid subtropical conditions typical of late summer, with scattered thunderstorms and cloud cover expected to moderate daytime heating. Persistent monsoon moisture and weak steering winds favor convective development that could suppress the maximum if rain arrives earlier or lingers longer than currently modeled, creating the tight clustering of trader-implied probabilities around 31–33 °C. Historical August averages near 32 °C provide limited additional signal given interannual variability in rainfall timing. Updated runs from global ensembles over the next 24 hours will likely resolve much of the remaining spread before market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions