Recent forecasts for Shenzhen indicate a minimum temperature on August 28 most likely between 26–28°C, driven by persistent cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and high humidity from monsoon moisture that limits nighttime radiative cooling. Official guidance from the Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau highlights multi-cloud conditions with brief showers, keeping overnight lows elevated compared to clearer subtropical baselines around 25°C. Model consensus emphasizes weak steering winds and elevated dew points near 26°C, which narrow the range between leading outcomes by reducing variability in heat retention. Traders weigh subtle differences in forecast timing of rain bands and boundary-layer mixing, as even modest increases in cloud thickness or wind could shift the low by 1°C. Updated model runs tomorrow morning will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shenzhen on August 28?
Lowest temperature in Shenzhen on August 28?
27°C 47%
28°C 41%
26°C 39%
25°C 33%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
22°C or below
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
18%
25°C
33%
26°C
39%
27°C
47%
28°C
41%
29°C
25%
30°C
9%
31°C
1%
32°C or higher
3%
27°C 47%
28°C 41%
26°C 39%
25°C 33%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
22°C or below
$128 Vol.
1%
23°C
$37 Vol.
1%
24°C
$16 Vol.
18%
25°C
$0 Vol.
33%
26°C
$0 Vol.
39%
27°C
$0 Vol.
47%
28°C
$0 Vol.
41%
29°C
$0 Vol.
25%
30°C
$32 Vol.
9%
31°C
$37 Vol.
1%
32°C or higher
$37 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts for Shenzhen indicate a minimum temperature on August 28 most likely between 26–28°C, driven by persistent cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and high humidity from monsoon moisture that limits nighttime radiative cooling. Official guidance from the Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau highlights multi-cloud conditions with brief showers, keeping overnight lows elevated compared to clearer subtropical baselines around 25°C. Model consensus emphasizes weak steering winds and elevated dew points near 26°C, which narrow the range between leading outcomes by reducing variability in heat retention. Traders weigh subtle differences in forecast timing of rain bands and boundary-layer mixing, as even modest increases in cloud thickness or wind could shift the low by 1°C. Updated model runs tomorrow morning will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$286End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts for Shenzhen indicate a minimum temperature on August 28 most likely between 26–28°C, driven by persistent cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and high humidity from monsoon moisture that limits nighttime radiative cooling. Official guidance from the Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau highlights multi-cloud conditions with brief showers, keeping overnight lows elevated compared to clearer subtropical baselines around 25°C. Model consensus emphasizes weak steering winds and elevated dew points near 26°C, which narrow the range between leading outcomes by reducing variability in heat retention. Traders weigh subtle differences in forecast timing of rain bands and boundary-layer mixing, as even modest increases in cloud thickness or wind could shift the low by 1°C. Updated model runs tomorrow morning will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$286End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts for Shenzhen indicate a minimum temperature on August 28 most likely between 26–28°C, driven by persistent cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and high humidity from monsoon moisture that limits nighttime radiative cooling. Official guidance from the Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau highlights multi-cloud conditions with brief showers, keeping overnight lows elevated compared to clearer subtropical baselines around 25°C. Model consensus emphasizes weak steering winds and elevated dew points near 26°C, which narrow the range between leading outcomes by reducing variability in heat retention. Traders weigh subtle differences in forecast timing of rain bands and boundary-layer mixing, as even modest increases in cloud thickness or wind could shift the low by 1°C. Updated model runs tomorrow morning will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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