Recent subdued readings in Japan's core CPI, including Tokyo data at 1.8% YoY for August 2026, form the main driver behind market-implied odds heavily favoring outcomes at or below 2.4%. Government energy subsidies, favorable base effects, and contained pass-through from Middle East-related oil pressures have kept underlying inflation below the Bank of Japan's 2% target for much of the year, with the index excluding fresh food and fuel rising only to 2.0%. The BOJ's July 2026 Outlook Report lowered its fiscal-year 2026 core CPI forecast to 2.5% from 2.8%, reflecting expectations of gradual moderation amid policy normalization. Traders appear to price in limited wage-price spirals and continued restraint from subsidies, positioning the annual 2026 figure near or below 2.4% despite the September 17-18 policy meeting as a potential catalyst for any upward revision in sentiment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated≤1.9% 54.8%
2.0-2.4% 42%
3.0-3.4% 4.5%
2.5-2.9% 1.5%
$39,425 Vol.
$39,425 Vol.
Jan 22, 2027
≤1.9%
55%
2.0-2.4%
42%
2.5-2.9%
2%
3.0-3.4%
4%
3.5-3.9%
<1%
4.0%+
<1%
≤1.9% 54.8%
2.0-2.4% 42%
3.0-3.4% 4.5%
2.5-2.9% 1.5%
$39,425 Vol.
$39,425 Vol.
Jan 22, 2027
≤1.9%
$18,726 Vol.
55%
2.0-2.4%
$11,063 Vol.
42%
2.5-2.9%
$5,421 Vol.
2%
3.0-3.4%
$1,536 Vol.
4%
3.5-3.9%
$1,253 Vol.
<1%
4.0%+
$1,426 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Recent subdued readings in Japan's core CPI, including Tokyo data at 1.8% YoY for August 2026, form the main driver behind market-implied odds heavily favoring outcomes at or below 2.4%. Government energy subsidies, favorable base effects, and contained pass-through from Middle East-related oil pressures have kept underlying inflation below the Bank of Japan's 2% target for much of the year, with the index excluding fresh food and fuel rising only to 2.0%. The BOJ's July 2026 Outlook Report lowered its fiscal-year 2026 core CPI forecast to 2.5% from 2.8%, reflecting expectations of gradual moderation amid policy normalization. Traders appear to price in limited wage-price spirals and continued restraint from subsidies, positioning the annual 2026 figure near or below 2.4% despite the September 17-18 policy meeting as a potential catalyst for any upward revision in sentiment.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Market Opened: Jun 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
Volume
$39,425End Date
Jan 22, 2027Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Recent subdued readings in Japan's core CPI, including Tokyo data at 1.8% YoY for August 2026, form the main driver behind market-implied odds heavily favoring outcomes at or below 2.4%. Government energy subsidies, favorable base effects, and contained pass-through from Middle East-related oil pressures have kept underlying inflation below the Bank of Japan's 2% target for much of the year, with the index excluding fresh food and fuel rising only to 2.0%. The BOJ's July 2026 Outlook Report lowered its fiscal-year 2026 core CPI forecast to 2.5% from 2.8%, reflecting expectations of gradual moderation amid policy normalization. Traders appear to price in limited wage-price spirals and continued restraint from subsidies, positioning the annual 2026 figure near or below 2.4% despite the September 17-18 policy meeting as a potential catalyst for any upward revision in sentiment.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Volume
$39,425End Date
Jan 22, 2027Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent subdued readings in Japan's core CPI, including Tokyo data at 1.8% YoY for August 2026, form the main driver behind market-implied odds heavily favoring outcomes at or below 2.4%. Government energy subsidies, favorable base effects, and contained pass-through from Middle East-related oil pressures have kept underlying inflation below the Bank of Japan's 2% target for much of the year, with the index excluding fresh food and fuel rising only to 2.0%. The BOJ's July 2026 Outlook Report lowered its fiscal-year 2026 core CPI forecast to 2.5% from 2.8%, reflecting expectations of gradual moderation amid policy normalization. Traders appear to price in limited wage-price spirals and continued restraint from subsidies, positioning the annual 2026 figure near or below 2.4% despite the September 17-18 policy meeting as a potential catalyst for any upward revision in sentiment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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