MLB's 2026 regular season remains without a four-home-run game through late August, keeping the market near even odds despite the feat's historical rarity of just 21 instances across more than 150 years. Multiple three-homer outings and consecutive at-bat streaks, including Cal Raleigh's recent four-homer span for the Mariners, reflect ongoing power surges from sluggers like Aaron Judge and Yordan Alvarez, while deeper bullpens and matchup-specific pitching have prevented any single player from reaching four in one contest. With roughly 30 games per team left and potential for high-scoring environments or extra plate appearances in lopsided matchups, trader consensus reflects balanced uncertainty between the low baseline probability and the realistic chance of an outlier explosion in the final weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated0% chance
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Sep 27, 2026
0% chance
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Sep 27, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any player hits four or more home runs in a single game during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Four home runs by a player in any length regular season game will count toward resolution. Inside-the-park home runs will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.
If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if it cannot be determined if a player hit four home runs in a single game within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.MLB's 2026 regular season remains without a four-home-run game through late August, keeping the market near even odds despite the feat's historical rarity of just 21 instances across more than 150 years. Multiple three-homer outings and consecutive at-bat streaks, including Cal Raleigh's recent four-homer span for the Mariners, reflect ongoing power surges from sluggers like Aaron Judge and Yordan Alvarez, while deeper bullpens and matchup-specific pitching have prevented any single player from reaching four in one contest. With roughly 30 games per team left and potential for high-scoring environments or extra plate appearances in lopsided matchups, trader consensus reflects balanced uncertainty between the low baseline probability and the realistic chance of an outlier explosion in the final weeks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any player hits four or more home runs in a single game during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Four home runs by a player in any length regular season game will count toward resolution. Inside-the-park home runs will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.
If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if it cannot be determined if a player hit four home runs in a single game within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Four home runs by a player in any length regular season game will count toward resolution. Inside-the-park home runs will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.
If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if it cannot be determined if a player hit four home runs in a single game within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 28, 2026, 7:03 PM ET
Volume
$3End Date
Sep 28, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 7:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any player hits four or more home runs in a single game during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Four home runs by a player in any length regular season game will count toward resolution. Inside-the-park home runs will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.
If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if it cannot be determined if a player hit four home runs in a single game within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.MLB's 2026 regular season remains without a four-home-run game through late August, keeping the market near even odds despite the feat's historical rarity of just 21 instances across more than 150 years. Multiple three-homer outings and consecutive at-bat streaks, including Cal Raleigh's recent four-homer span for the Mariners, reflect ongoing power surges from sluggers like Aaron Judge and Yordan Alvarez, while deeper bullpens and matchup-specific pitching have prevented any single player from reaching four in one contest. With roughly 30 games per team left and potential for high-scoring environments or extra plate appearances in lopsided matchups, trader consensus reflects balanced uncertainty between the low baseline probability and the realistic chance of an outlier explosion in the final weeks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any player hits four or more home runs in a single game during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Four home runs by a player in any length regular season game will count toward resolution. Inside-the-park home runs will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.
If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if it cannot be determined if a player hit four home runs in a single game within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Four home runs by a player in any length regular season game will count toward resolution. Inside-the-park home runs will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.
If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if it cannot be determined if a player hit four home runs in a single game within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3End Date
Sep 28, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 7:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...MLB's 2026 regular season remains without a four-home-run game through late August, keeping the market near even odds despite the feat's historical rarity of just 21 instances across more than 150 years. Multiple three-homer outings and consecutive at-bat streaks, including Cal Raleigh's recent four-homer span for the Mariners, reflect ongoing power surges from sluggers like Aaron Judge and Yordan Alvarez, while deeper bullpens and matchup-specific pitching have prevented any single player from reaching four in one contest. With roughly 30 games per team left and potential for high-scoring environments or extra plate appearances in lopsided matchups, trader consensus reflects balanced uncertainty between the low baseline probability and the realistic chance of an outlier explosion in the final weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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