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icon for MLB: Player to Hit 40+ Home Runs

MLB: Player to Hit 40+ Home Runs

icon for MLB: Player to Hit 40+ Home Runs

MLB: Player to Hit 40+ Home Runs

$29,184 Vol.

Oct 11, 2026
Polymarket

$29,184 Vol.

Polymarket

Yordan Alvarez

$1,319 Vol.

89%

Junior Caminero

$1,533 Vol.

84%

Matt Olson

$1,330 Vol.

81%

Kazuma Okamoto

$0 Vol.

50%

Munetaka Murakami

$543 Vol.

26%

Shohei Ohtani

$1,165 Vol.

16%

Pete Alonso

$76 Vol.

9%

Jordan Walker

$587 Vol.

11%

Dillon Dingler

$3,284 Vol.

10%

Byron Buxton

$2,357 Vol.

7%

Brandon Lowe

$1,893 Vol.

7%

Colson Montgomery

$1,026 Vol.

7%

Bryce Harper

$390 Vol.

7%

CJ Abrams

$1,530 Vol.

7%

Miguel Vargas

$120 Vol.

7%

Wilson Contreras

$399 Vol.

6%

Manny Machado

$242 Vol.

5%

James Wood

$1,525 Vol.

4%

$130 Vol.

4%

Mike Trout

$301 Vol.

4%

$0 Vol.

4%

Ketel Marte

$393 Vol.

3%

Christian Walker

$383 Vol.

2%

Juan Soto

$360 Vol.

2%

Nick Kurtz

$263 Vol.

2%

Shea Langeliers

$2,432 Vol.

1%

Aaron Judge

$1,773 Vol.

1%

Ben Rice

$317 Vol.

47%

Hunter Goodman

$2,449 Vol.

55%

This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed player hits 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it is otherwise unclear if the listed player recorded a 40 or more home runs during 2026 MLB regular season within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kyle Schwarber reached 40 home runs first in the 2026 season on August 26, giving the Phillies designated hitter his fourth such campaign and establishing him as the clear leader ahead of Yordan Alvarez, Matt Olson, and Hunter Goodman, who each sit at 36. With roughly a month remaining and several power hitters like Ben Rice (35) and Junior Caminero (35) still in striking distance of the milestone, recent form and favorable matchups in September will determine whether additional players join him. Trader consensus reflects this late-summer surge in long balls across the league, with Schwarber’s pace and health as the dominant factors shaping probabilities for the season-long outcome.

This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed player hits 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it is otherwise unclear if the listed player recorded a 40 or more home runs during 2026 MLB regular season within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$29,184
End Date
Oct 11, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 2, 2026, 6:04 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.mlb.com
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed player hits 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it is otherwise unclear if the listed player recorded a 40 or more home runs during 2026 MLB regular season within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed player hits 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it is otherwise unclear if the listed player recorded a 40 or more home runs during 2026 MLB regular season within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kyle Schwarber reached 40 home runs first in the 2026 season on August 26, giving the Phillies designated hitter his fourth such campaign and establishing him as the clear leader ahead of Yordan Alvarez, Matt Olson, and Hunter Goodman, who each sit at 36. With roughly a month remaining and several power hitters like Ben Rice (35) and Junior Caminero (35) still in striking distance of the milestone, recent form and favorable matchups in September will determine whether additional players join him. Trader consensus reflects this late-summer surge in long balls across the league, with Schwarber’s pace and health as the dominant factors shaping probabilities for the season-long outcome.

This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed player hits 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it is otherwise unclear if the listed player recorded a 40 or more home runs during 2026 MLB regular season within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$29,184
End Date
Oct 11, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 2, 2026, 6:04 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.mlb.com
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed player hits 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it is otherwise unclear if the listed player recorded a 40 or more home runs during 2026 MLB regular season within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"MLB: Player to Hit 40+ Home Runs" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 30 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Kyle Schwarber" at 100%, followed by "Yordan Alvarez" at 89%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "MLB: Player to Hit 40+ Home Runs" has generated $29.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 2, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "MLB: Player to Hit 40+ Home Runs," browse the 30 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "MLB: Player to Hit 40+ Home Runs" is "Kyle Schwarber" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Yordan Alvarez" at 89%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "MLB: Player to Hit 40+ Home Runs" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.