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Sports·MLB

MLB: Home Runs Leader

icon for MLB: Home Runs Leader
Sports·MLB

MLB: Home Runs Leader

Kyle Schwarber 68%

Matt Olson 11.6%

Junior Caminero 9.2%

Yordan Alvarez 6.3%

Polymarket

$3,145,586 Vol.

Kyle Schwarber 68%

Matt Olson 11.6%

Junior Caminero 9.2%

Yordan Alvarez 6.3%

Polymarket

$3,145,586 Vol.

Kyle Schwarber

$30,271 Vol.

68%

Matt Olson

$2,850 Vol.

12%

Junior Caminero

$3,010 Vol.

9%

Yordan Alvarez

$11,325 Vol.

6%

Ben Rice

$1,548 Vol.

6%

Munetaka Murakami

$8,149 Vol.

1%

James Wood

$2,574 Vol.

1%

Pete Alonso

$448 Vol.

1%

Nick Kurtz

$1,488 Vol.

<1%

Mike Trout

$1,748,316 Vol.

<1%

Shohei Ohtani

$1,285 Vol.

<1%

George Springer

$511 Vol.

<1%

Sal Stewart

$650 Vol.

<1%

Elly De La Cruz

$1,197 Vol.

<1%

Jordan Walker

$606 Vol.

<1%

Brandon Lowe

$469,828 Vol.

<1%

CJ Abrams

$203,697 Vol.

<1%

Juan Soto

$648,292 Vol.

<1%

Rafael Devers

$631 Vol.

<1%

Aaron Judge

$4,680 Vol.

<1%

Eugenio Suarez

$922 Vol.

<1%

Shea Langeliers

$1,341 Vol.

<1%

Cal Raleigh

$772 Vol.

<1%

Giancarlo Stanton

$664 Vol.

<1%

Manny Machado

$547 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the player who records the most home runs during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player with the higher slugging percentage during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the player with the higher batting average during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more hits during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kyle Schwarber holds a commanding position in the MLB home run leader market due to his league-leading total of 40 homers as of late August 2026, four ahead of Matt Olson and Yordan Alvarez. The Phillies designated hitter reached the milestone first this season with a three-run shot on August 26 and has shown a recent power resurgence, including multiple long balls in his last stretch amid a strong plate approach. Olson and Alvarez sit at 36 each with consistent output but trail significantly, while emerging threats like Junior Caminero and Ben Rice post lower totals that leave them as longer shots in the race. Trader consensus reflects Schwarber's sustained edge in volume and pace heading into the final month, though any late surge from pursuers could narrow the gap.

This market will resolve according to the player who records the most home runs during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season.

In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player with the higher slugging percentage during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the player with the higher batting average during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more hits during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.

If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3,145,586
End Date
Sep 28, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 22, 2026, 12:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the player who records the most home runs during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player with the higher slugging percentage during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the player with the higher batting average during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more hits during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the player who records the most home runs during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player with the higher slugging percentage during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the player with the higher batting average during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more hits during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kyle Schwarber holds a commanding position in the MLB home run leader market due to his league-leading total of 40 homers as of late August 2026, four ahead of Matt Olson and Yordan Alvarez. The Phillies designated hitter reached the milestone first this season with a three-run shot on August 26 and has shown a recent power resurgence, including multiple long balls in his last stretch amid a strong plate approach. Olson and Alvarez sit at 36 each with consistent output but trail significantly, while emerging threats like Junior Caminero and Ben Rice post lower totals that leave them as longer shots in the race. Trader consensus reflects Schwarber's sustained edge in volume and pace heading into the final month, though any late surge from pursuers could narrow the gap.

This market will resolve according to the player who records the most home runs during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season.

In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player with the higher slugging percentage during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the player with the higher batting average during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more hits during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.

If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3,145,586
End Date
Sep 28, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 22, 2026, 12:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the player who records the most home runs during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player with the higher slugging percentage during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the player with the higher batting average during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more hits during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"MLB: Home Runs Leader" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 25 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Kyle Schwarber" at 68%, followed by "Matt Olson" at 12%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 68¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 68% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "MLB: Home Runs Leader" has generated $3.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 22, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "MLB: Home Runs Leader," browse the 25 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "MLB: Home Runs Leader" is "Kyle Schwarber" at 68%, meaning the market assigns a 68% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Matt Olson" at 12%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "MLB: Home Runs Leader" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.