**Pete Hegseth remains in office as Secretary of Defense amid an active U.S. military posture toward Iran and internal Pentagon adjustments.** Traders assign a 77.5% probability that he will not depart by December 31, 2026, reflecting his continued alignment with presidential priorities on force posture, munitions production, and operations in the Strait of Hormuz. Recent actions include public briefings on strike capabilities, coordination with Treasury on economic measures against Iran, and efforts to expand the defense industrial base, all consistent with administration strategy. While reports detail leadership vacancies following the April 2026 removal of the Army chief of staff and expected departure of the Army secretary, along with partisan criticism of promotion and personnel policies, these have not produced congressional or White House moves toward replacement. Republican support in polling remains solid, and no resignation signals or confirmation deadlines have emerged that would alter the current consensus before year-end.