High cabinet turnover has already marked President Trump’s second term, with multiple Senate-confirmed officials departing through firings or resignations by mid-2026 amid policy frictions, investigations, and personal circumstances. Traders assign the highest probability to no further exits before 2027 because the remaining confirmed secretaries and directors appear aligned on core priorities such as tariffs, energy production, and border enforcement, even as midterms approach and raise prospects of congressional oversight. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. ranks next due to ongoing scrutiny of HHS vaccine and regulatory decisions that have sparked internal and external criticism. Other names reflect narrower risks: John Ratcliffe and Chris Wright face potential intelligence or energy policy tensions, while Scott Bessent, Kelly Loeffler, and Pete Hegseth register lower odds tied to fiscal, small-business, or defense management issues. Recent White House staff exits, including the press secretary’s announced departure, underscore broader retention pressures without yet shifting cabinet-level probabilities dramatically.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNone before 2027 48.1%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 16.0%
Scott Bessent 7.9%
Susie Wiles 6.7%
$42,448 Vol.
$42,448 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
None before 2027
48%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
16%
Scott Bessent
8%
Susie Wiles
7%
Chris Wright
7%
Doug Burgum
6%
Russell T. Vought
4%
Pete Hegseth
4%
Howard Lutnick
3%
Scott Turner
2%
J.D. Vance
2%
Brooke Rollins
2%
Lee Zeldin
2%
Sean Duffy
2%
Jamieson Greer
2%
Marco Rubio
1%
John Ratcliffe
8%
Kelly Loeffler
7%
Linda McMahon
1%
Mike Waltz
1%
Doug Collins
<1%
None before 2027 48.1%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 16.0%
Scott Bessent 7.9%
Susie Wiles 6.7%
$42,448 Vol.
$42,448 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
None before 2027
$8,046 Vol.
48%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$18,401 Vol.
16%
Scott Bessent
$1,702 Vol.
8%
Susie Wiles
$3,362 Vol.
7%
Chris Wright
$730 Vol.
7%
Doug Burgum
$799 Vol.
6%
Russell T. Vought
$473 Vol.
4%
Pete Hegseth
$939 Vol.
4%
Howard Lutnick
$830 Vol.
3%
Scott Turner
$351 Vol.
2%
J.D. Vance
$581 Vol.
2%
Brooke Rollins
$670 Vol.
2%
Lee Zeldin
$636 Vol.
2%
Sean Duffy
$632 Vol.
2%
Jamieson Greer
$478 Vol.
2%
Marco Rubio
$498 Vol.
1%
John Ratcliffe
$544 Vol.
8%
Kelly Loeffler
$776 Vol.
7%
Linda McMahon
$847 Vol.
1%
Mike Waltz
$646 Vol.
1%
Doug Collins
$506 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.High cabinet turnover has already marked President Trump’s second term, with multiple Senate-confirmed officials departing through firings or resignations by mid-2026 amid policy frictions, investigations, and personal circumstances. Traders assign the highest probability to no further exits before 2027 because the remaining confirmed secretaries and directors appear aligned on core priorities such as tariffs, energy production, and border enforcement, even as midterms approach and raise prospects of congressional oversight. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. ranks next due to ongoing scrutiny of HHS vaccine and regulatory decisions that have sparked internal and external criticism. Other names reflect narrower risks: John Ratcliffe and Chris Wright face potential intelligence or energy policy tensions, while Scott Bessent, Kelly Loeffler, and Pete Hegseth register lower odds tied to fiscal, small-business, or defense management issues. Recent White House staff exits, including the press secretary’s announced departure, underscore broader retention pressures without yet shifting cabinet-level probabilities dramatically.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Market Opened: May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Volume
$42,448End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.High cabinet turnover has already marked President Trump’s second term, with multiple Senate-confirmed officials departing through firings or resignations by mid-2026 amid policy frictions, investigations, and personal circumstances. Traders assign the highest probability to no further exits before 2027 because the remaining confirmed secretaries and directors appear aligned on core priorities such as tariffs, energy production, and border enforcement, even as midterms approach and raise prospects of congressional oversight. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. ranks next due to ongoing scrutiny of HHS vaccine and regulatory decisions that have sparked internal and external criticism. Other names reflect narrower risks: John Ratcliffe and Chris Wright face potential intelligence or energy policy tensions, while Scott Bessent, Kelly Loeffler, and Pete Hegseth register lower odds tied to fiscal, small-business, or defense management issues. Recent White House staff exits, including the press secretary’s announced departure, underscore broader retention pressures without yet shifting cabinet-level probabilities dramatically.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Volume
$42,448End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...High cabinet turnover has already marked President Trump’s second term, with multiple Senate-confirmed officials departing through firings or resignations by mid-2026 amid policy frictions, investigations, and personal circumstances. Traders assign the highest probability to no further exits before 2027 because the remaining confirmed secretaries and directors appear aligned on core priorities such as tariffs, energy production, and border enforcement, even as midterms approach and raise prospects of congressional oversight. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. ranks next due to ongoing scrutiny of HHS vaccine and regulatory decisions that have sparked internal and external criticism. Other names reflect narrower risks: John Ratcliffe and Chris Wright face potential intelligence or energy policy tensions, while Scott Bessent, Kelly Loeffler, and Pete Hegseth register lower odds tied to fiscal, small-business, or defense management issues. Recent White House staff exits, including the press secretary’s announced departure, underscore broader retention pressures without yet shifting cabinet-level probabilities dramatically.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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