Rod Wave’s proven track record of consistent first-week performance, anchored by *Last Lap*’s 127k-equivalent debut at No. 2 on the Billboard 200, underpins trader consensus around the 105-145k range for *Don’t Look Down*. The August 28 release via Alamo, paired with pre-orders for limited physical editions, a 25-city arena tour launching September 12, and recent singles like “Hustle” and “Feed the Streets,” fuels fan-driven streaming velocity and pure sales. Limited features keep the project focused on his signature melodic style, while late-summer competition and typical variability in equivalent units create the tight spread across the middle brackets. Early tracking and next week’s chart updates will clarify whether momentum pushes toward the higher or lower end of that window.