**Traders assign a 78.5% probability to no US Supreme Court vacancy occurring in 2026 because the nine-justice bench remains stable, with the two oldest members publicly signaling continued service and no confirmed retirements, deaths, or structural changes on the horizon.** As of late August 2026, Clarence Thomas (78) and Samuel Alito (76) continue on the court without announced plans to step down; Alito directly stated in an August interview that he intends to serve “another term,” pushing back against retirement speculation tied to Senate control and midterms. The remaining justices—Chief Justice Roberts (71), Sotomayor (72), Kagan (66), and the three Trump appointees—are younger, with no reported health developments or resignation signals that would trigger a vacancy. Base rates for annual SCOTUS exits are historically low (roughly 15-20%), and the absence of any legislative action expanding the court or imposing term limits further reduces the likelihood of a change before year-end. Upcoming confirmation dynamics and midterm Senate outcomes could matter for future vacancies but currently support the market’s expectation of continuity through December 2026.