No vacancy on the U.S. Supreme Court is expected in 2026, consistent with the 79% implied probability for that outcome. The nine-justice bench remains fully seated as of late August, with Clarence Thomas at 78 and Samuel Alito at 76 the oldest members. Alito publicly stated in an August 2026 interview that he plans to serve at least another term, reducing speculation about strategic retirement. No justice has announced plans to depart, and public reporting shows no serious health developments or incapacity signals that would create an opening before year-end. Lifetime tenure under the Constitution means vacancies arise only through retirement, resignation, or death, none of which appear imminent based on current statements and patterns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated20% chance
$19,031 Vol.
$19,031 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
20% chance
$19,031 Vol.
$19,031 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. No vacancy on the U.S. Supreme Court is expected in 2026, consistent with the 79% implied probability for that outcome. The nine-justice bench remains fully seated as of late August, with Clarence Thomas at 78 and Samuel Alito at 76 the oldest members. Alito publicly stated in an August 2026 interview that he plans to serve at least another term, reducing speculation about strategic retirement. No justice has announced plans to depart, and public reporting shows no serious health developments or incapacity signals that would create an opening before year-end. Lifetime tenure under the Constitution means vacancies arise only through retirement, resignation, or death, none of which appear imminent based on current statements and patterns.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 15, 2025, 7:18 PM ET
Volume
$19,031End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 15, 2025, 7:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. No vacancy on the U.S. Supreme Court is expected in 2026, consistent with the 79% implied probability for that outcome. The nine-justice bench remains fully seated as of late August, with Clarence Thomas at 78 and Samuel Alito at 76 the oldest members. Alito publicly stated in an August 2026 interview that he plans to serve at least another term, reducing speculation about strategic retirement. No justice has announced plans to depart, and public reporting shows no serious health developments or incapacity signals that would create an opening before year-end. Lifetime tenure under the Constitution means vacancies arise only through retirement, resignation, or death, none of which appear imminent based on current statements and patterns.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$19,031End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 15, 2025, 7:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No vacancy on the U.S. Supreme Court is expected in 2026, consistent with the 79% implied probability for that outcome. The nine-justice bench remains fully seated as of late August, with Clarence Thomas at 78 and Samuel Alito at 76 the oldest members. Alito publicly stated in an August 2026 interview that he plans to serve at least another term, reducing speculation about strategic retirement. No justice has announced plans to depart, and public reporting shows no serious health developments or incapacity signals that would create an opening before year-end. Lifetime tenure under the Constitution means vacancies arise only through retirement, resignation, or death, none of which appear imminent based on current statements and patterns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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