**Jannik Sinner’s withdrawal with a right knee injury has reshaped the 2026 US Open men’s draw, elevating Alexander Zverev to the top seed with a comparatively favorable path through the top half while placing defending champion Carlos Alcaraz in a loaded bottom half alongside Novak Djokovic.** Alcaraz returns from a four-month wrist layoff, limiting his recent match play and raising questions about early-round sharpness on hard courts. Projected quarterfinals and semifinals highlight potential clashes such as Zverev versus Félix Auger-Aliassime on one side and Alcaraz versus Djokovic on the other, underscoring how draw position, recent form, and injury recovery directly influence implied probabilities for semifinal advancement. Ben Shelton, Arthur Fils, and other in-form players add depth to the field as the main draw opens on August 30.