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icon for VMA Best Dance 2026

VMA Best Dance 2026

icon for VMA Best Dance 2026

VMA Best Dance 2026

Confessions II – The Film (Madonna) 49%

Stateside + Zara Larsson (PinkPantheress) 39%

Nobody's Girl (Tate McRae) 9%

Runway (Lady Gaga and Doechii) 8%

Polymarket
NEW

Confessions II – The Film (Madonna) 49%

Stateside + Zara Larsson (PinkPantheress) 39%

Nobody's Girl (Tate McRae) 9%

Runway (Lady Gaga and Doechii) 8%

Polymarket
NEW

Confessions II – The Film (Madonna)

$817 Vol.

49%

Stateside + Zara Larsson (PinkPantheress)

$370 Vol.

39%

Nobody's Girl (Tate McRae)

$71 Vol.

9%

Runway (Lady Gaga and Doechii)

$11 Vol.

8%

Dance... (Slayyyter)

$11 Vol.

8%

Aperture (Harry Styles)

$11 Vol.

5%

New Religion (Bebe Rexha and Faithless)

$114 Vol.

1%

The MTV Video Music Awards are presented annually by MTV to honor outstanding achievement in music videos. The 2026 MTV Video Music Awards are currently scheduled for September 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed video that wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Best Dance. If a video was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Best Dance when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated video whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The return of the Best Dance category after a seven-year hiatus has created a tightly contested field at the 2026 VMAs, with fan voting closing September 25 ahead of the September 27 ceremony. Madonna’s “Confessions II – The Film” holds a narrow edge in trader sentiment, driven by her overall nomination dominance and the video’s additional nods across visual and choreography categories, echoing her long-standing influence in dance-pop. PinkPantheress’s “Stateside + Zara Larsson” follows closely on streaming momentum and contemporary club appeal, while lower-priced options like Tate McRae’s “Nobody’s Girl,” Slayyyter’s “Dance…,” and the Lady Gaga–Doechii collab “Runway” reflect niche fan bases and stylistic differentiation. The even spread across nominees highlights how fan voting rewards broad popularity over traditional critical consensus in this revived award.

The MTV Video Music Awards are presented annually by MTV to honor outstanding achievement in music videos. The 2026 MTV Video Music Awards are currently scheduled for September 27, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed video that wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Best Dance.

If a video was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Best Dance when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated video whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The MTV Video Music Awards are presented annually by MTV to honor outstanding achievement in music videos. The 2026 MTV Video Music Awards are currently scheduled for September 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed video that wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Best Dance. If a video was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Best Dance when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated video whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,404
End Date
Sep 28, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 5:57 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The MTV Video Music Awards are presented annually by MTV to honor outstanding achievement in music videos. The 2026 MTV Video Music Awards are currently scheduled for September 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed video that wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Best Dance. If a video was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Best Dance when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated video whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The return of the Best Dance category after a seven-year hiatus has created a tightly contested field at the 2026 VMAs, with fan voting closing September 25 ahead of the September 27 ceremony. Madonna’s “Confessions II – The Film” holds a narrow edge in trader sentiment, driven by her overall nomination dominance and the video’s additional nods across visual and choreography categories, echoing her long-standing influence in dance-pop. PinkPantheress’s “Stateside + Zara Larsson” follows closely on streaming momentum and contemporary club appeal, while lower-priced options like Tate McRae’s “Nobody’s Girl,” Slayyyter’s “Dance…,” and the Lady Gaga–Doechii collab “Runway” reflect niche fan bases and stylistic differentiation. The even spread across nominees highlights how fan voting rewards broad popularity over traditional critical consensus in this revived award.

The MTV Video Music Awards are presented annually by MTV to honor outstanding achievement in music videos. The 2026 MTV Video Music Awards are currently scheduled for September 27, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed video that wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Best Dance.

If a video was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Best Dance when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated video whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The MTV Video Music Awards are presented annually by MTV to honor outstanding achievement in music videos. The 2026 MTV Video Music Awards are currently scheduled for September 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed video that wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Best Dance. If a video was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Best Dance when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated video whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,404
End Date
Sep 28, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 5:57 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"VMA Best Dance 2026" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Confessions II – The Film (Madonna)" at 49%, followed by "Stateside + Zara Larsson (PinkPantheress)" at 39%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 49¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 49% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"VMA Best Dance 2026" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 18, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "VMA Best Dance 2026," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "VMA Best Dance 2026" is "Confessions II – The Film (Madonna)" at 49%, meaning the market assigns a 49% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Stateside + Zara Larsson (PinkPantheress)" at 39%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "VMA Best Dance 2026" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.