UK Chancellor John Healey faces constrained fiscal headroom of roughly £5–10 billion ahead of the October 28 Autumn Budget, after accounting for defence commitments and cost-of-living pledges, with public debt near £3 trillion and debt-service costs elevated. Recent Bank of England data show August CPI at 3.1 percent, with forecasts now pointing to inflation exceeding 4 percent in early 2027 amid energy-price shocks tied to Middle East developments; the MPC held Bank Rate at 3.75 percent on September 17 while signaling possible tightening in November. The government has reaffirmed its manifesto pledge against raising headline rates of income tax, employee National Insurance, or VAT, directing attention toward targeted measures such as bank levies, capital-gains adjustments, or oil-and-gas windfalls alongside greater business-rates retention and fiscal devolution. The Office for Budget Responsibility will publish its single pre-measures forecast alongside the statement, shaping market-implied probabilities for specific tax and spending outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
Oct 28, 2026
Land value tax
51%
CGT increase
50%
Fuel duty increase
49%
Wealth tax
49%
$0.00 Vol.
Land value tax
$0 Vol.
51%
CGT increase
$0 Vol.
50%
Fuel duty increase
$0 Vol.
49%
Wealth tax
$0 Vol.
49%
The UK Autumn Budget 2026 is scheduled to be delivered to Parliament by Chancellor of the Exchequer John Healey on October 28, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed measure is announced in the 2026 Autumn Budget. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the listed options are defined as follows:
- Wealth tax: the introduction of an annual percentage-based levy on the value of a person's assets.
- Land value tax: the introduction of a percentage-based levy on the value of a person's home.
- Fuel duty increase: an increase to the rate of fuel duty.
- CGT increase: an increase to any rate of capital gains tax.
A measure will only count if it is announced in the Chancellor's Budget speech or contained in the official Budget documents published by HM Treasury on the day of the Budget. Measures that are only consulted on, reviewed, or otherwise not announced as government policy will not count.
For the fuel duty option, the ending or non-renewal of the existing fuel duty freeze, such that the rate of fuel duty rises, will count as an increase.
If the 2026 Autumn Budget is delayed beyond October 28, 2026, this market will resolve according to the Budget whenever it is delivered, provided it is delivered by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no Budget is delivered by that date, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from HM Treasury and the UK government, including the published Budget documents; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.UK Chancellor John Healey faces constrained fiscal headroom of roughly £5–10 billion ahead of the October 28 Autumn Budget, after accounting for defence commitments and cost-of-living pledges, with public debt near £3 trillion and debt-service costs elevated. Recent Bank of England data show August CPI at 3.1 percent, with forecasts now pointing to inflation exceeding 4 percent in early 2027 amid energy-price shocks tied to Middle East developments; the MPC held Bank Rate at 3.75 percent on September 17 while signaling possible tightening in November. The government has reaffirmed its manifesto pledge against raising headline rates of income tax, employee National Insurance, or VAT, directing attention toward targeted measures such as bank levies, capital-gains adjustments, or oil-and-gas windfalls alongside greater business-rates retention and fiscal devolution. The Office for Budget Responsibility will publish its single pre-measures forecast alongside the statement, shaping market-implied probabilities for specific tax and spending outcomes.
The UK Autumn Budget 2026 is scheduled to be delivered to Parliament by Chancellor of the Exchequer John Healey on October 28, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed measure is announced in the 2026 Autumn Budget. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the listed options are defined as follows:
- Wealth tax: the introduction of an annual percentage-based levy on the value of a person's assets.
- Land value tax: the introduction of a percentage-based levy on the value of a person's home.
- Fuel duty increase: an increase to the rate of fuel duty.
- CGT increase: an increase to any rate of capital gains tax.
A measure will only count if it is announced in the Chancellor's Budget speech or contained in the official Budget documents published by HM Treasury on the day of the Budget. Measures that are only consulted on, reviewed, or otherwise not announced as government policy will not count.
For the fuel duty option, the ending or non-renewal of the existing fuel duty freeze, such that the rate of fuel duty rises, will count as an increase.
If the 2026 Autumn Budget is delayed beyond October 28, 2026, this market will resolve according to the Budget whenever it is delivered, provided it is delivered by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no Budget is delivered by that date, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from HM Treasury and the UK government, including the published Budget documents; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed measure is announced in the 2026 Autumn Budget. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the listed options are defined as follows:
- Wealth tax: the introduction of an annual percentage-based levy on the value of a person's assets.
- Land value tax: the introduction of a percentage-based levy on the value of a person's home.
- Fuel duty increase: an increase to the rate of fuel duty.
- CGT increase: an increase to any rate of capital gains tax.
A measure will only count if it is announced in the Chancellor's Budget speech or contained in the official Budget documents published by HM Treasury on the day of the Budget. Measures that are only consulted on, reviewed, or otherwise not announced as government policy will not count.
For the fuel duty option, the ending or non-renewal of the existing fuel duty freeze, such that the rate of fuel duty rises, will count as an increase.
If the 2026 Autumn Budget is delayed beyond October 28, 2026, this market will resolve according to the Budget whenever it is delivered, provided it is delivered by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no Budget is delivered by that date, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from HM Treasury and the UK government, including the published Budget documents; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Sep 17, 2026, 6:56 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 29, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 6:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The UK Autumn Budget 2026 is scheduled to be delivered to Parliament by Chancellor of the Exchequer John Healey on October 28, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed measure is announced in the 2026 Autumn Budget. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the listed options are defined as follows:
- Wealth tax: the introduction of an annual percentage-based levy on the value of a person's assets.
- Land value tax: the introduction of a percentage-based levy on the value of a person's home.
- Fuel duty increase: an increase to the rate of fuel duty.
- CGT increase: an increase to any rate of capital gains tax.
A measure will only count if it is announced in the Chancellor's Budget speech or contained in the official Budget documents published by HM Treasury on the day of the Budget. Measures that are only consulted on, reviewed, or otherwise not announced as government policy will not count.
For the fuel duty option, the ending or non-renewal of the existing fuel duty freeze, such that the rate of fuel duty rises, will count as an increase.
If the 2026 Autumn Budget is delayed beyond October 28, 2026, this market will resolve according to the Budget whenever it is delivered, provided it is delivered by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no Budget is delivered by that date, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from HM Treasury and the UK government, including the published Budget documents; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.UK Chancellor John Healey faces constrained fiscal headroom of roughly £5–10 billion ahead of the October 28 Autumn Budget, after accounting for defence commitments and cost-of-living pledges, with public debt near £3 trillion and debt-service costs elevated. Recent Bank of England data show August CPI at 3.1 percent, with forecasts now pointing to inflation exceeding 4 percent in early 2027 amid energy-price shocks tied to Middle East developments; the MPC held Bank Rate at 3.75 percent on September 17 while signaling possible tightening in November. The government has reaffirmed its manifesto pledge against raising headline rates of income tax, employee National Insurance, or VAT, directing attention toward targeted measures such as bank levies, capital-gains adjustments, or oil-and-gas windfalls alongside greater business-rates retention and fiscal devolution. The Office for Budget Responsibility will publish its single pre-measures forecast alongside the statement, shaping market-implied probabilities for specific tax and spending outcomes.
The UK Autumn Budget 2026 is scheduled to be delivered to Parliament by Chancellor of the Exchequer John Healey on October 28, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed measure is announced in the 2026 Autumn Budget. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the listed options are defined as follows:
- Wealth tax: the introduction of an annual percentage-based levy on the value of a person's assets.
- Land value tax: the introduction of a percentage-based levy on the value of a person's home.
- Fuel duty increase: an increase to the rate of fuel duty.
- CGT increase: an increase to any rate of capital gains tax.
A measure will only count if it is announced in the Chancellor's Budget speech or contained in the official Budget documents published by HM Treasury on the day of the Budget. Measures that are only consulted on, reviewed, or otherwise not announced as government policy will not count.
For the fuel duty option, the ending or non-renewal of the existing fuel duty freeze, such that the rate of fuel duty rises, will count as an increase.
If the 2026 Autumn Budget is delayed beyond October 28, 2026, this market will resolve according to the Budget whenever it is delivered, provided it is delivered by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no Budget is delivered by that date, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from HM Treasury and the UK government, including the published Budget documents; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed measure is announced in the 2026 Autumn Budget. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the listed options are defined as follows:
- Wealth tax: the introduction of an annual percentage-based levy on the value of a person's assets.
- Land value tax: the introduction of a percentage-based levy on the value of a person's home.
- Fuel duty increase: an increase to the rate of fuel duty.
- CGT increase: an increase to any rate of capital gains tax.
A measure will only count if it is announced in the Chancellor's Budget speech or contained in the official Budget documents published by HM Treasury on the day of the Budget. Measures that are only consulted on, reviewed, or otherwise not announced as government policy will not count.
For the fuel duty option, the ending or non-renewal of the existing fuel duty freeze, such that the rate of fuel duty rises, will count as an increase.
If the 2026 Autumn Budget is delayed beyond October 28, 2026, this market will resolve according to the Budget whenever it is delivered, provided it is delivered by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no Budget is delivered by that date, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from HM Treasury and the UK government, including the published Budget documents; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 29, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 6:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...UK Chancellor John Healey faces constrained fiscal headroom of roughly £5–10 billion ahead of the October 28 Autumn Budget, after accounting for defence commitments and cost-of-living pledges, with public debt near £3 trillion and debt-service costs elevated. Recent Bank of England data show August CPI at 3.1 percent, with forecasts now pointing to inflation exceeding 4 percent in early 2027 amid energy-price shocks tied to Middle East developments; the MPC held Bank Rate at 3.75 percent on September 17 while signaling possible tightening in November. The government has reaffirmed its manifesto pledge against raising headline rates of income tax, employee National Insurance, or VAT, directing attention toward targeted measures such as bank levies, capital-gains adjustments, or oil-and-gas windfalls alongside greater business-rates retention and fiscal devolution. The Office for Budget Responsibility will publish its single pre-measures forecast alongside the statement, shaping market-implied probabilities for specific tax and spending outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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