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Economy·Housing

What will the median home value in the SF Metro area be on September 30?

icon for What will the median home value in the SF Metro area be on September 30?
Economy·Housing

What will the median home value in the SF Metro area be on September 30?

Sep 30

Sep 30

<$1.176M 92%

$1.198M - $1.220M 6.8%

$1.176M - $1.198M 4.7%

$1.220M - $1.242M 1.5%

Polymarket

$43,435 Vol.

<$1.176M 92%

$1.198M - $1.220M 6.8%

$1.176M - $1.198M 4.7%

$1.220M - $1.242M 1.5%

Polymarket

$43,435 Vol.

<$1.176M

$20,025 Vol.

92%

$1.176M - $1.198M

$14,170 Vol.

5%

$1.198M - $1.220M

$2,004 Vol.

7%

$1.220M - $1.242M

$1,967 Vol.

2%

$1.242M - $1.264M

$3,020 Vol.

1%

$1.264M - $1.284M

$1,063 Vol.

1%

$1.284M+

$1,186 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on September 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/52)**Current Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) data for the San Francisco metro places the typical (middle-tier) home value at approximately $1.137 million as of late August 2026, with a median sale price near $1.175 million.** This positions the market comfortably below the $1.176 million threshold that commands 91.5% implied probability. **Key supporting factors include persistent supply constraints and AI-fueled demand concentrated in core San Francisco and Peninsula submarkets, offset by broader metro dynamics.** Inventory remains historically low, with homes selling in roughly 17 days amid sale-to-list ratios above 107%, yet month-over-month price changes have been modest or negative in recent California Association of Realtors reports. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate near 6.66% continues to limit buyer leverage, while ZHVI gains have averaged just 1.2% year-over-year. With only about 30 days until September 30, seasonal patterns and the absence of major catalysts make a rapid ascent above $1.176 million improbable. **Scenarios that could realistically challenge this positioning are limited but include an outsized late-summer luxury transaction wave or unexpectedly strong regional employment data that accelerates bidding in higher-value segments.** A sharp drop in rates or policy shift supporting housing demand could also exert upward pressure, though such moves typically take longer to translate into median-value shifts. Trader consensus reflects these near-term realities, pricing in stability around current levels rather than a breakout.

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on September 30, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/52)
Volume
$43,435
End Date
Sep 30, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 3:57 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on September 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/52)
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on September 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/52)**Current Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) data for the San Francisco metro places the typical (middle-tier) home value at approximately $1.137 million as of late August 2026, with a median sale price near $1.175 million.** This positions the market comfortably below the $1.176 million threshold that commands 91.5% implied probability. **Key supporting factors include persistent supply constraints and AI-fueled demand concentrated in core San Francisco and Peninsula submarkets, offset by broader metro dynamics.** Inventory remains historically low, with homes selling in roughly 17 days amid sale-to-list ratios above 107%, yet month-over-month price changes have been modest or negative in recent California Association of Realtors reports. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate near 6.66% continues to limit buyer leverage, while ZHVI gains have averaged just 1.2% year-over-year. With only about 30 days until September 30, seasonal patterns and the absence of major catalysts make a rapid ascent above $1.176 million improbable. **Scenarios that could realistically challenge this positioning are limited but include an outsized late-summer luxury transaction wave or unexpectedly strong regional employment data that accelerates bidding in higher-value segments.** A sharp drop in rates or policy shift supporting housing demand could also exert upward pressure, though such moves typically take longer to translate into median-value shifts. Trader consensus reflects these near-term realities, pricing in stability around current levels rather than a breakout.

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on September 30, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/52)
Volume
$43,435
End Date
Sep 30, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 3:57 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on September 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/52)

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Frequently Asked Questions

"What will the median home value in the SF Metro area be on September 30?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "<$1.176M" at 92%, followed by "$1.198M - $1.220M" at 7%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 92¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 92% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "What will the median home value in the SF Metro area be on September 30?" has generated $43.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 1, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "What will the median home value in the SF Metro area be on September 30?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "What will the median home value in the SF Metro area be on September 30?" is "<$1.176M" at 92%, meaning the market assigns a 92% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "$1.198M - $1.220M" at 7%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "What will the median home value in the SF Metro area be on September 30?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.