Elevated mortgage rates near 6.5% and rising housing inventory have kept U.S. home price appreciation subdued through mid-2026, positioning the <$419K outcome as the market-implied favorite at 56.8%. Zillow’s typical home value index stood near $372K in July with a 1% YoY gain and just 0.3% projected annual growth, while Redfin and Census median sale prices hovered around $409K–$411K. Realtor.com median list prices fell 2.5% YoY to $430K in June amid softer demand. These trends, driven by affordability constraints and expanded supply rather than recessionary forces, support trader consensus that values will remain below the next threshold on September 30 absent a sharp late-summer rebound.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated<$419K 56.7%
$419K - $426K 31.2%
$426K - $433K 13.1%
$433K - $440K 1.4%
$60,963 Vol.
$60,963 Vol.
Sep 29, 2026
<$419K
57%
$419K - $426K
29%
$426K - $433K
13%
$433K - $440K
1%
$440K - $447K
<1%
$447K - $454K
<1%
$454K+
<1%
<$419K 56.7%
$419K - $426K 31.2%
$426K - $433K 13.1%
$433K - $440K 1.4%
$60,963 Vol.
$60,963 Vol.
Sep 29, 2026
<$419K
$19,740 Vol.
57%
$419K - $426K
$12,562 Vol.
29%
$426K - $433K
$6,994 Vol.
13%
$433K - $440K
$12,976 Vol.
1%
$440K - $447K
$4,026 Vol.
<1%
$447K - $454K
$4,088 Vol.
<1%
$454K+
$577 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/49)Elevated mortgage rates near 6.5% and rising housing inventory have kept U.S. home price appreciation subdued through mid-2026, positioning the <$419K outcome as the market-implied favorite at 56.8%. Zillow’s typical home value index stood near $372K in July with a 1% YoY gain and just 0.3% projected annual growth, while Redfin and Census median sale prices hovered around $409K–$411K. Realtor.com median list prices fell 2.5% YoY to $430K in June amid softer demand. These trends, driven by affordability constraints and expanded supply rather than recessionary forces, support trader consensus that values will remain below the next threshold on September 30 absent a sharp late-summer rebound.
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/49)
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/49)
Market Opened: Jul 1, 2026, 3:55 PM ET
Volume
$60,963End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 3:55 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/49)Elevated mortgage rates near 6.5% and rising housing inventory have kept U.S. home price appreciation subdued through mid-2026, positioning the <$419K outcome as the market-implied favorite at 56.8%. Zillow’s typical home value index stood near $372K in July with a 1% YoY gain and just 0.3% projected annual growth, while Redfin and Census median sale prices hovered around $409K–$411K. Realtor.com median list prices fell 2.5% YoY to $430K in June amid softer demand. These trends, driven by affordability constraints and expanded supply rather than recessionary forces, support trader consensus that values will remain below the next threshold on September 30 absent a sharp late-summer rebound.
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/49)
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/49)
Volume
$60,963End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 3:55 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated mortgage rates near 6.5% and rising housing inventory have kept U.S. home price appreciation subdued through mid-2026, positioning the <$419K outcome as the market-implied favorite at 56.8%. Zillow’s typical home value index stood near $372K in July with a 1% YoY gain and just 0.3% projected annual growth, while Redfin and Census median sale prices hovered around $409K–$411K. Realtor.com median list prices fell 2.5% YoY to $430K in June amid softer demand. These trends, driven by affordability constraints and expanded supply rather than recessionary forces, support trader consensus that values will remain below the next threshold on September 30 absent a sharp late-summer rebound.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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