Elevated mortgage rates near 6.5% and expanding inventory are the dominant forces anchoring trader sentiment, with the <$419K outcome holding 57% implied probability as affordability constraints limit demand and slow price momentum into September. Recent Parcl-linked metrics and Zillow Home Value Index readings near $372K through July reflect tepid year-over-year gains of roughly 1%, while existing-home median sales prices from NAR hovered around $434K amid rising supply and softer pending sales. Mixed signals from Redfin and Realtor.com data—showing flat-to-declining list prices in many metros—reinforce expectations of limited upside before resolution, consistent with seasonal patterns and persistent rate pressure.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated<$419K 56.9%
$419K - $426K 35.0%
$426K - $433K 10.3%
$433K - $440K 1.3%
$61,042 Vol.
$61,042 Vol.
Sep 29, 2026
<$419K
57%
$419K - $426K
35%
$426K - $433K
10%
$433K - $440K
1%
$440K - $447K
<1%
$447K - $454K
<1%
$454K+
<1%
<$419K 56.9%
$419K - $426K 35.0%
$426K - $433K 10.3%
$433K - $440K 1.3%
$61,042 Vol.
$61,042 Vol.
Sep 29, 2026
<$419K
$19,819 Vol.
57%
$419K - $426K
$12,562 Vol.
35%
$426K - $433K
$6,994 Vol.
10%
$433K - $440K
$12,976 Vol.
1%
$440K - $447K
$4,026 Vol.
<1%
$447K - $454K
$4,088 Vol.
<1%
$454K+
$577 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/49)Elevated mortgage rates near 6.5% and expanding inventory are the dominant forces anchoring trader sentiment, with the <$419K outcome holding 57% implied probability as affordability constraints limit demand and slow price momentum into September. Recent Parcl-linked metrics and Zillow Home Value Index readings near $372K through July reflect tepid year-over-year gains of roughly 1%, while existing-home median sales prices from NAR hovered around $434K amid rising supply and softer pending sales. Mixed signals from Redfin and Realtor.com data—showing flat-to-declining list prices in many metros—reinforce expectations of limited upside before resolution, consistent with seasonal patterns and persistent rate pressure.
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/49)
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/49)
Market Opened: Jul 1, 2026, 3:55 PM ET
Volume
$61,042End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 3:55 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/49)Elevated mortgage rates near 6.5% and expanding inventory are the dominant forces anchoring trader sentiment, with the <$419K outcome holding 57% implied probability as affordability constraints limit demand and slow price momentum into September. Recent Parcl-linked metrics and Zillow Home Value Index readings near $372K through July reflect tepid year-over-year gains of roughly 1%, while existing-home median sales prices from NAR hovered around $434K amid rising supply and softer pending sales. Mixed signals from Redfin and Realtor.com data—showing flat-to-declining list prices in many metros—reinforce expectations of limited upside before resolution, consistent with seasonal patterns and persistent rate pressure.
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/49)
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/49)
Volume
$61,042End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 3:55 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated mortgage rates near 6.5% and expanding inventory are the dominant forces anchoring trader sentiment, with the <$419K outcome holding 57% implied probability as affordability constraints limit demand and slow price momentum into September. Recent Parcl-linked metrics and Zillow Home Value Index readings near $372K through July reflect tepid year-over-year gains of roughly 1%, while existing-home median sales prices from NAR hovered around $434K amid rising supply and softer pending sales. Mixed signals from Redfin and Realtor.com data—showing flat-to-declining list prices in many metros—reinforce expectations of limited upside before resolution, consistent with seasonal patterns and persistent rate pressure.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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