Aaron Rodgers' one-year, $22.5 million contract with the Pittsburgh Steelers for the 2026 season, combined with his repeated public statements at OTAs and training camp that the campaign will be his last, anchors trader consensus that he will not retire beforehand. The 42-year-old reunited with head coach Mike McCarthy, whose hiring helped shift Rodgers' thinking after he initially leaned toward stepping away following the 2025 campaign. Recent camp reports show him fully engaged without load management signals or injury concerns that could prompt an early exit, while his 2025 production (65.7% completion rate, 24 touchdowns) and historical efficiency metrics support continued participation. The implied 99.3% probability for "No" reflects this skin-in-the-game alignment of contract, coaching fit, and explicit retirement timeline. Late scratches, a significant preseason injury, or an unforeseen personal decision remain the narrow paths that could still shift resolution.