**The ICJ case (South Africa v. Israel) remains in its written pleadings phase, with South Africa’s reply due only in November 2027 and Israel’s rejoinder not until May 2029, making a final merits ruling on genocide impossible by the market’s December 2027 cutoff.** Provisional measures from 2024 require Israel to prevent genocidal acts and facilitate aid, but the court has issued no determination on the merits, and recent August 2026 filings by South Africa focus on alleged non-compliance rather than advancing the core claim toward judgment. The ICC has issued arrest warrants against Israeli officials for war crimes and crimes against humanity (such as starvation as a method of warfare) but not genocide, and those cases face enforcement challenges, jurisdictional disputes, and procedural delays with no trials or convictions expected in the timeframe. International courts historically require years for full genocide determinations after extensive evidence and argument phases, supporting trader consensus that a specific “guilty” finding on genocide against the state or leaders remains improbable before the deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated13% chance
$99,446 Vol.
$99,446 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
13% chance
$99,446 Vol.
$99,446 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
**The ICJ case (South Africa v. Israel) remains in its written pleadings phase, with South Africa’s reply due only in November 2027 and Israel’s rejoinder not until May 2029, making a final merits ruling on genocide impossible by the market’s December 2027 cutoff.** Provisional measures from 2024 require Israel to prevent genocidal acts and facilitate aid, but the court has issued no determination on the merits, and recent August 2026 filings by South Africa focus on alleged non-compliance rather than advancing the core claim toward judgment.
The ICC has issued arrest warrants against Israeli officials for war crimes and crimes against humanity (such as starvation as a method of warfare) but not genocide, and those cases face enforcement challenges, jurisdictional disputes, and procedural delays with no trials or convictions expected in the timeframe. International courts historically require years for full genocide determinations after extensive evidence and argument phases, supporting trader consensus that a specific “guilty” finding on genocide against the state or leaders remains improbable before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 29, 2026, 3:31 PM ET
Volume
$99,446End Date
Jan 1, 2028Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 3:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
**The ICJ case (South Africa v. Israel) remains in its written pleadings phase, with South Africa’s reply due only in November 2027 and Israel’s rejoinder not until May 2029, making a final merits ruling on genocide impossible by the market’s December 2027 cutoff.** Provisional measures from 2024 require Israel to prevent genocidal acts and facilitate aid, but the court has issued no determination on the merits, and recent August 2026 filings by South Africa focus on alleged non-compliance rather than advancing the core claim toward judgment.
The ICC has issued arrest warrants against Israeli officials for war crimes and crimes against humanity (such as starvation as a method of warfare) but not genocide, and those cases face enforcement challenges, jurisdictional disputes, and procedural delays with no trials or convictions expected in the timeframe. International courts historically require years for full genocide determinations after extensive evidence and argument phases, supporting trader consensus that a specific “guilty” finding on genocide against the state or leaders remains improbable before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$99,446End Date
Jan 1, 2028Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 3:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**The ICJ case (South Africa v. Israel) remains in its written pleadings phase, with South Africa’s reply due only in November 2027 and Israel’s rejoinder not until May 2029, making a final merits ruling on genocide impossible by the market’s December 2027 cutoff.** Provisional measures from 2024 require Israel to prevent genocidal acts and facilitate aid, but the court has issued no determination on the merits, and recent August 2026 filings by South Africa focus on alleged non-compliance rather than advancing the core claim toward judgment. The ICC has issued arrest warrants against Israeli officials for war crimes and crimes against humanity (such as starvation as a method of warfare) but not genocide, and those cases face enforcement challenges, jurisdictional disputes, and procedural delays with no trials or convictions expected in the timeframe. International courts historically require years for full genocide determinations after extensive evidence and argument phases, supporting trader consensus that a specific “guilty” finding on genocide against the state or leaders remains improbable before the deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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