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Sports·ATP

Will Carlos Alcaraz Play in the U.S. Open?

icon for Will Carlos Alcaraz Play in the U.S. Open?
Sports·ATP

Will Carlos Alcaraz Play in the U.S. Open?

99% chance
Polymarket

$103,675 Vol.

99% chance
Polymarket

$103,675 Vol.

This market will resolve "Yes" if Carlos Alcaraz competes in at least one main-draw singles match at the 2026 US Open, scheduled for August 30, 2026 to September 13, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No." Carlos Alcaraz is considered to have "played" if he takes the court and play begins in any of his main-draw singles matches. Being entered in the draw, or an opponent's retirement or walkover before any play begins, does not by itself count as having played. If Alcaraz begins a match and then retires or is defaulted, this market will resolve "Yes." If the tournament is postponed beyond September 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or canceled before Alcaraz plays a main-draw singles match, this market will resolve "No." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Open (usopen.org); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Carlos Alcaraz’s confirmed return from a four-month right wrist injury layoff drives the overwhelming trader consensus on his U.S. Open participation. The defending champion has completed intensive on-court testing, including extended sessions with Holger Rune, announced his comeback publicly, and already competed in mixed doubles at Flushing Meadows alongside Serena Williams. He is officially scheduled to open singles play against Roman Safiullin on August 31 as the No. 2 seed, with no reported setbacks in recent days. While a late flare-up remains a theoretical risk in any best-of-five Grand Slam setting, the combination of official entry confirmation, recent match play, and positive medical clearance leaves little realistic scope for withdrawal before the main draw begins.

This market will resolve "Yes" if Carlos Alcaraz competes in at least one main-draw singles match at the 2026 US Open, scheduled for August 30, 2026 to September 13, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No."

Carlos Alcaraz is considered to have "played" if he takes the court and play begins in any of his main-draw singles matches. Being entered in the draw, or an opponent's retirement or walkover before any play begins, does not by itself count as having played. If Alcaraz begins a match and then retires or is defaulted, this market will resolve "Yes."

If the tournament is postponed beyond September 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or canceled before Alcaraz plays a main-draw singles match, this market will resolve "No."

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Open (usopen.org); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$103,675
Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 11:10 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve "Yes" if Carlos Alcaraz competes in at least one main-draw singles match at the 2026 US Open, scheduled for August 30, 2026 to September 13, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No." Carlos Alcaraz is considered to have "played" if he takes the court and play begins in any of his main-draw singles matches. Being entered in the draw, or an opponent's retirement or walkover before any play begins, does not by itself count as having played. If Alcaraz begins a match and then retires or is defaulted, this market will resolve "Yes." If the tournament is postponed beyond September 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or canceled before Alcaraz plays a main-draw singles match, this market will resolve "No." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Open (usopen.org); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve "Yes" if Carlos Alcaraz competes in at least one main-draw singles match at the 2026 US Open, scheduled for August 30, 2026 to September 13, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No." Carlos Alcaraz is considered to have "played" if he takes the court and play begins in any of his main-draw singles matches. Being entered in the draw, or an opponent's retirement or walkover before any play begins, does not by itself count as having played. If Alcaraz begins a match and then retires or is defaulted, this market will resolve "Yes." If the tournament is postponed beyond September 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or canceled before Alcaraz plays a main-draw singles match, this market will resolve "No." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Open (usopen.org); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Carlos Alcaraz’s confirmed return from a four-month right wrist injury layoff drives the overwhelming trader consensus on his U.S. Open participation. The defending champion has completed intensive on-court testing, including extended sessions with Holger Rune, announced his comeback publicly, and already competed in mixed doubles at Flushing Meadows alongside Serena Williams. He is officially scheduled to open singles play against Roman Safiullin on August 31 as the No. 2 seed, with no reported setbacks in recent days. While a late flare-up remains a theoretical risk in any best-of-five Grand Slam setting, the combination of official entry confirmation, recent match play, and positive medical clearance leaves little realistic scope for withdrawal before the main draw begins.

This market will resolve "Yes" if Carlos Alcaraz competes in at least one main-draw singles match at the 2026 US Open, scheduled for August 30, 2026 to September 13, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No."

Carlos Alcaraz is considered to have "played" if he takes the court and play begins in any of his main-draw singles matches. Being entered in the draw, or an opponent's retirement or walkover before any play begins, does not by itself count as having played. If Alcaraz begins a match and then retires or is defaulted, this market will resolve "Yes."

If the tournament is postponed beyond September 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or canceled before Alcaraz plays a main-draw singles match, this market will resolve "No."

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Open (usopen.org); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$103,675
Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 11:10 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve "Yes" if Carlos Alcaraz competes in at least one main-draw singles match at the 2026 US Open, scheduled for August 30, 2026 to September 13, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No." Carlos Alcaraz is considered to have "played" if he takes the court and play begins in any of his main-draw singles matches. Being entered in the draw, or an opponent's retirement or walkover before any play begins, does not by itself count as having played. If Alcaraz begins a match and then retires or is defaulted, this market will resolve "Yes." If the tournament is postponed beyond September 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or canceled before Alcaraz plays a main-draw singles match, this market will resolve "No." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Open (usopen.org); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Carlos Alcaraz Play in the U.S. Open?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 99% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 99¢, the market collectively assigns a 99% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will Carlos Alcaraz Play in the U.S. Open?" has generated $103.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 6, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will Carlos Alcaraz Play in the U.S. Open?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will Carlos Alcaraz Play in the U.S. Open?" is 99% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 99% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will Carlos Alcaraz Play in the U.S. Open?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.