Recent weak July data, including a manufacturing PMI contraction to 49.2 and softer industrial production, retail sales, and investment, have driven early Q3 2026 GDP estimates to around 4% year-over-year, down from 4.3% in Q2, amid subdued domestic demand and ongoing property sector pressures. This has concentrated trader sentiment on the 4.3-4.6% and 4.6-4.9% brackets as the most probable outcomes, reflecting expectations that July Politburo signals and the new 800 billion yuan policy financing tool could provide modest stabilization without a sharp rebound. Uncertainty persists around stimulus timing, scale, and effectiveness versus persistent headwinds from weak consumption and external demand moderation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4.3-4.6% 41%
4.6-4.9% 36%
4.0-4.3% 19.7%
4.9-5.2% 7.1%
$30,202 Vol.
$30,202 Vol.
Oct 19, 2026
<3.4%
<1%
3.4-3.7%
<1%
3.7-4.0%
<1%
4.0-4.3%
20%
4.3-4.6%
41%
4.6-4.9%
36%
4.9-5.2%
7%
5.2-5.5%
<1%
5.5%+
1%
4.3-4.6% 41%
4.6-4.9% 36%
4.0-4.3% 19.7%
4.9-5.2% 7.1%
$30,202 Vol.
$30,202 Vol.
Oct 19, 2026
<3.4%
$1,133 Vol.
<1%
3.4-3.7%
$694 Vol.
<1%
3.7-4.0%
$709 Vol.
<1%
4.0-4.3%
$2,181 Vol.
20%
4.3-4.6%
$11,634 Vol.
41%
4.6-4.9%
$8,520 Vol.
36%
4.9-5.2%
$3,074 Vol.
7%
5.2-5.5%
$1,055 Vol.
<1%
5.5%+
$1,201 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlRecent weak July data, including a manufacturing PMI contraction to 49.2 and softer industrial production, retail sales, and investment, have driven early Q3 2026 GDP estimates to around 4% year-over-year, down from 4.3% in Q2, amid subdued domestic demand and ongoing property sector pressures. This has concentrated trader sentiment on the 4.3-4.6% and 4.6-4.9% brackets as the most probable outcomes, reflecting expectations that July Politburo signals and the new 800 billion yuan policy financing tool could provide modest stabilization without a sharp rebound. Uncertainty persists around stimulus timing, scale, and effectiveness versus persistent headwinds from weak consumption and external demand moderation.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Market Opened: Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ET
Volume
$30,202End Date
Oct 20, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlRecent weak July data, including a manufacturing PMI contraction to 49.2 and softer industrial production, retail sales, and investment, have driven early Q3 2026 GDP estimates to around 4% year-over-year, down from 4.3% in Q2, amid subdued domestic demand and ongoing property sector pressures. This has concentrated trader sentiment on the 4.3-4.6% and 4.6-4.9% brackets as the most probable outcomes, reflecting expectations that July Politburo signals and the new 800 billion yuan policy financing tool could provide modest stabilization without a sharp rebound. Uncertainty persists around stimulus timing, scale, and effectiveness versus persistent headwinds from weak consumption and external demand moderation.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Volume
$30,202End Date
Oct 20, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent weak July data, including a manufacturing PMI contraction to 49.2 and softer industrial production, retail sales, and investment, have driven early Q3 2026 GDP estimates to around 4% year-over-year, down from 4.3% in Q2, amid subdued domestic demand and ongoing property sector pressures. This has concentrated trader sentiment on the 4.3-4.6% and 4.6-4.9% brackets as the most probable outcomes, reflecting expectations that July Politburo signals and the new 800 billion yuan policy financing tool could provide modest stabilization without a sharp rebound. Uncertainty persists around stimulus timing, scale, and effectiveness versus persistent headwinds from weak consumption and external demand moderation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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