**Kansas leads as the GOP's most vulnerable Great Plains Senate seat at 41% market probability, followed by Iowa at 30.5% and Nebraska at 29%.** Economic pressures from tariffs, elevated fertilizer and fuel costs tied to international conflicts, and delays in a new farm bill have weighed on Republican incumbents and candidates across these agricultural states. In Kansas, incumbent Roger Marshall faces Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton, a prominent pastor viewed as a credible centrist nominee; recent polls show Marshall ahead by low single digits, prompting some forecasters to shift the race from Safe to Likely Republican. Iowa's open seat pits Republican Ashley Hinson against Democrat Josh Turek in a toss-up rated contest, with tight polling reflecting similar farm-belt headwinds. Nebraska's Pete Ricketts holds a narrower edge over independent Dan Osborn, whose prior strong performance keeps the race in play but benefits from the incumbent's resources. Trader consensus reflects these polling trends and candidate dynamics heading into November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedKansas 42%
Iowa 31%
Nebraska 31%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Kansas
42%
Iowa
31%
Nebraska
31%
Kansas 42%
Iowa 31%
Nebraska 31%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Kansas
$26 Vol.
42%
Iowa
$0 Vol.
31%
Nebraska
$0 Vol.
31%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Republican Senate candidate earns the lowest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Republican, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Republicans, the relevant vote share will be that of the Republican with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Kansas leads as the GOP's most vulnerable Great Plains Senate seat at 41% market probability, followed by Iowa at 30.5% and Nebraska at 29%.**
Economic pressures from tariffs, elevated fertilizer and fuel costs tied to international conflicts, and delays in a new farm bill have weighed on Republican incumbents and candidates across these agricultural states. In Kansas, incumbent Roger Marshall faces Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton, a prominent pastor viewed as a credible centrist nominee; recent polls show Marshall ahead by low single digits, prompting some forecasters to shift the race from Safe to Likely Republican. Iowa's open seat pits Republican Ashley Hinson against Democrat Josh Turek in a toss-up rated contest, with tight polling reflecting similar farm-belt headwinds. Nebraska's Pete Ricketts holds a narrower edge over independent Dan Osborn, whose prior strong performance keeps the race in play but benefits from the incumbent's resources. Trader consensus reflects these polling trends and candidate dynamics heading into November.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Republican Senate candidate earns the lowest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Republican, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Republicans, the relevant vote share will be that of the Republican with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Republican Senate candidate earns the lowest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Republican, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Republicans, the relevant vote share will be that of the Republican with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Sep 17, 2026, 1:23 PM ET
Volume
$26End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Republican Senate candidate earns the lowest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Republican, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Republicans, the relevant vote share will be that of the Republican with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Kansas leads as the GOP's most vulnerable Great Plains Senate seat at 41% market probability, followed by Iowa at 30.5% and Nebraska at 29%.**
Economic pressures from tariffs, elevated fertilizer and fuel costs tied to international conflicts, and delays in a new farm bill have weighed on Republican incumbents and candidates across these agricultural states. In Kansas, incumbent Roger Marshall faces Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton, a prominent pastor viewed as a credible centrist nominee; recent polls show Marshall ahead by low single digits, prompting some forecasters to shift the race from Safe to Likely Republican. Iowa's open seat pits Republican Ashley Hinson against Democrat Josh Turek in a toss-up rated contest, with tight polling reflecting similar farm-belt headwinds. Nebraska's Pete Ricketts holds a narrower edge over independent Dan Osborn, whose prior strong performance keeps the race in play but benefits from the incumbent's resources. Trader consensus reflects these polling trends and candidate dynamics heading into November.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Republican Senate candidate earns the lowest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Republican, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Republicans, the relevant vote share will be that of the Republican with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Republican Senate candidate earns the lowest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Republican, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Republicans, the relevant vote share will be that of the Republican with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$26End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Kansas leads as the GOP's most vulnerable Great Plains Senate seat at 41% market probability, followed by Iowa at 30.5% and Nebraska at 29%.** Economic pressures from tariffs, elevated fertilizer and fuel costs tied to international conflicts, and delays in a new farm bill have weighed on Republican incumbents and candidates across these agricultural states. In Kansas, incumbent Roger Marshall faces Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton, a prominent pastor viewed as a credible centrist nominee; recent polls show Marshall ahead by low single digits, prompting some forecasters to shift the race from Safe to Likely Republican. Iowa's open seat pits Republican Ashley Hinson against Democrat Josh Turek in a toss-up rated contest, with tight polling reflecting similar farm-belt headwinds. Nebraska's Pete Ricketts holds a narrower edge over independent Dan Osborn, whose prior strong performance keeps the race in play but benefits from the incumbent's resources. Trader consensus reflects these polling trends and candidate dynamics heading into November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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