India’s CPI inflation has climbed steadily through mid-2026, reaching 4.45% year-over-year in July from 4.38% in June, driven primarily by supply-side pressures in food (5.52%) and energy amid Middle East geopolitical tensions and rupee depreciation. The Reserve Bank of India’s August 2026 projection of 5.0% for FY2026-27, with quarterly peaks near 5.9%, reinforces trader expectations that the full-year 2026 average will exceed 4.50%. Core inflation remains contained near 3.9%, limiting broader pass-through, while the RBI has held the repo rate at 5.25% pending clearer signals on persistence. Upcoming August and September CPI releases, alongside monsoon outcomes and global oil volatility, represent the main near-term catalysts that could influence these market-implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4.50%+ 90%
3.75% to 4.49% 7.2%
<0.75% 1.7%
3.00% to 3.74% <1%
$82,462 Vol.
$82,462 Vol.
Jan 11, 2027
<0.75%
2%
0.75% to 1.49%
<1%
1.50% to 2.24%
<1%
2.25% to 2.99%
1%
3.00% to 3.74%
1%
3.75% to 4.49%
7%
4.50%+
90%
4.50%+ 90%
3.75% to 4.49% 7.2%
<0.75% 1.7%
3.00% to 3.74% <1%
$82,462 Vol.
$82,462 Vol.
Jan 11, 2027
<0.75%
$2,299 Vol.
2%
0.75% to 1.49%
$1,517 Vol.
<1%
1.50% to 2.24%
$1,576 Vol.
<1%
2.25% to 2.99%
$25,343 Vol.
1%
3.00% to 3.74%
$2,407 Vol.
1%
3.75% to 4.49%
$29,885 Vol.
7%
4.50%+
$19,437 Vol.
90%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdfIndia’s CPI inflation has climbed steadily through mid-2026, reaching 4.45% year-over-year in July from 4.38% in June, driven primarily by supply-side pressures in food (5.52%) and energy amid Middle East geopolitical tensions and rupee depreciation. The Reserve Bank of India’s August 2026 projection of 5.0% for FY2026-27, with quarterly peaks near 5.9%, reinforces trader expectations that the full-year 2026 average will exceed 4.50%. Core inflation remains contained near 3.9%, limiting broader pass-through, while the RBI has held the repo rate at 5.25% pending clearer signals on persistence. Upcoming August and September CPI releases, alongside monsoon outcomes and global oil volatility, represent the main near-term catalysts that could influence these market-implied probabilities.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Market Opened: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Volume
$82,462End Date
Jan 12, 2027Market Opened
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdfIndia’s CPI inflation has climbed steadily through mid-2026, reaching 4.45% year-over-year in July from 4.38% in June, driven primarily by supply-side pressures in food (5.52%) and energy amid Middle East geopolitical tensions and rupee depreciation. The Reserve Bank of India’s August 2026 projection of 5.0% for FY2026-27, with quarterly peaks near 5.9%, reinforces trader expectations that the full-year 2026 average will exceed 4.50%. Core inflation remains contained near 3.9%, limiting broader pass-through, while the RBI has held the repo rate at 5.25% pending clearer signals on persistence. Upcoming August and September CPI releases, alongside monsoon outcomes and global oil volatility, represent the main near-term catalysts that could influence these market-implied probabilities.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Volume
$82,462End Date
Jan 12, 2027Market Opened
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...India’s CPI inflation has climbed steadily through mid-2026, reaching 4.45% year-over-year in July from 4.38% in June, driven primarily by supply-side pressures in food (5.52%) and energy amid Middle East geopolitical tensions and rupee depreciation. The Reserve Bank of India’s August 2026 projection of 5.0% for FY2026-27, with quarterly peaks near 5.9%, reinforces trader expectations that the full-year 2026 average will exceed 4.50%. Core inflation remains contained near 3.9%, limiting broader pass-through, while the RBI has held the repo rate at 5.25% pending clearer signals on persistence. Upcoming August and September CPI releases, alongside monsoon outcomes and global oil volatility, represent the main near-term catalysts that could influence these market-implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions