Japan’s Q3 2026 GDP growth faces mixed signals after Q2’s 0.3% QoQ (1.1% annualized) print missed consensus, with domestic demand subtracting 0.2 percentage points amid flat private consumption and a 1.2% drop in capital expenditure. Elevated energy and import costs tied to Middle East tensions and yen weakness continue to weigh on households and firms, partially offset by government subsidies, solid wage gains, and resilient external demand—particularly AI-related exports and autos. Tokyo core CPI accelerated to 1.8% year-over-year in August, reinforcing expectations for a potential Bank of Japan rate hike at the September meeting and keeping inflation risks skewed higher. With Q3 forecasts clustered near 0.7% annualized and resolution still months away, trader-implied odds remain tightly distributed across modest positive and near-zero ranges, reflecting uncertainty over whether export momentum and policy support can sustain momentum against softening internal demand.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated0.8%–1.6% 25%
-0.8%–0.0% 22%
1.6%–2.4% 11.6%
0.0%–0.8% 10.6%
$22,944 Vol.
$22,944 Vol.
Nov 15, 2026
<-2.4%
1%
-2.4%– -1.6%
6%
-1.6%– -0.8%
3%
-0.8%–0.0%
22%
0.0%–0.8%
14%
0.8%–1.6%
25%
1.6%–2.4%
12%
2.4%–3.2%
6%
3.2%–4.0%
3%
4.0%+
1%
0.8%–1.6% 25%
-0.8%–0.0% 22%
1.6%–2.4% 11.6%
0.0%–0.8% 10.6%
$22,944 Vol.
$22,944 Vol.
Nov 15, 2026
<-2.4%
$255 Vol.
1%
-2.4%– -1.6%
$3,056 Vol.
6%
-1.6%– -0.8%
$261 Vol.
3%
-0.8%–0.0%
$1,956 Vol.
22%
0.0%–0.8%
$10,495 Vol.
14%
0.8%–1.6%
$1,635 Vol.
25%
1.6%–2.4%
$609 Vol.
12%
2.4%–3.2%
$3,235 Vol.
6%
3.2%–4.0%
$922 Vol.
3%
4.0%+
$521 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlJapan’s Q3 2026 GDP growth faces mixed signals after Q2’s 0.3% QoQ (1.1% annualized) print missed consensus, with domestic demand subtracting 0.2 percentage points amid flat private consumption and a 1.2% drop in capital expenditure. Elevated energy and import costs tied to Middle East tensions and yen weakness continue to weigh on households and firms, partially offset by government subsidies, solid wage gains, and resilient external demand—particularly AI-related exports and autos. Tokyo core CPI accelerated to 1.8% year-over-year in August, reinforcing expectations for a potential Bank of Japan rate hike at the September meeting and keeping inflation risks skewed higher. With Q3 forecasts clustered near 0.7% annualized and resolution still months away, trader-implied odds remain tightly distributed across modest positive and near-zero ranges, reflecting uncertainty over whether export momentum and policy support can sustain momentum against softening internal demand.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 3:20 PM ET
Volume
$22,944End Date
Nov 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 3:20 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlJapan’s Q3 2026 GDP growth faces mixed signals after Q2’s 0.3% QoQ (1.1% annualized) print missed consensus, with domestic demand subtracting 0.2 percentage points amid flat private consumption and a 1.2% drop in capital expenditure. Elevated energy and import costs tied to Middle East tensions and yen weakness continue to weigh on households and firms, partially offset by government subsidies, solid wage gains, and resilient external demand—particularly AI-related exports and autos. Tokyo core CPI accelerated to 1.8% year-over-year in August, reinforcing expectations for a potential Bank of Japan rate hike at the September meeting and keeping inflation risks skewed higher. With Q3 forecasts clustered near 0.7% annualized and resolution still months away, trader-implied odds remain tightly distributed across modest positive and near-zero ranges, reflecting uncertainty over whether export momentum and policy support can sustain momentum against softening internal demand.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Volume
$22,944End Date
Nov 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 3:20 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Japan’s Q3 2026 GDP growth faces mixed signals after Q2’s 0.3% QoQ (1.1% annualized) print missed consensus, with domestic demand subtracting 0.2 percentage points amid flat private consumption and a 1.2% drop in capital expenditure. Elevated energy and import costs tied to Middle East tensions and yen weakness continue to weigh on households and firms, partially offset by government subsidies, solid wage gains, and resilient external demand—particularly AI-related exports and autos. Tokyo core CPI accelerated to 1.8% year-over-year in August, reinforcing expectations for a potential Bank of Japan rate hike at the September meeting and keeping inflation risks skewed higher. With Q3 forecasts clustered near 0.7% annualized and resolution still months away, trader-implied odds remain tightly distributed across modest positive and near-zero ranges, reflecting uncertainty over whether export momentum and policy support can sustain momentum against softening internal demand.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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