Zack Wheeler's strong 2026 return from thoracic outlet syndrome surgery and prior rib removal anchors trader sentiment, as he posted a sub-3.00 ERA through midseason with elite strikeout rates before a recent August slump featuring elevated walks and a 7.59 ERA over five starts. Brandon Woodruff's shoulder capsule healing without surgery has sustained his second-place positioning despite limited innings and ongoing recovery. Michael Harris II and Sandy Alcantara trail due to more modest statistical rebounds from prior setbacks, while lower-priced names like O'Neil Cruz reflect smaller sample improvements. The wisdom of crowds reflected in these implied probabilities weighs full-season durability and production most heavily for the NL award.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedZack Wheeler 69%
Michael Harris II 18.6%
Sandy Alcantara 9%
O'Neil Cruz 8.6%
$149,298 Vol.
$149,298 Vol.
Zack Wheeler
69%
Michael Harris II
19%
Sandy Alcantara
9%
O'Neil Cruz
12%
Tanner Scott
4%
Brandon Woodruff
14%
Porter Hodge
1%
Shota Imanaga
1%
Ezequiel Tovar
1%
Sean Manaea
1%
Zack Wheeler 69%
Michael Harris II 18.6%
Sandy Alcantara 9%
O'Neil Cruz 8.6%
$149,298 Vol.
$149,298 Vol.
Zack Wheeler
69%
Michael Harris II
19%
Sandy Alcantara
9%
O'Neil Cruz
12%
Tanner Scott
4%
Brandon Woodruff
14%
Porter Hodge
1%
Shota Imanaga
1%
Ezequiel Tovar
1%
Sean Manaea
1%
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 26, 2026, 5:10 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Zack Wheeler's strong 2026 return from thoracic outlet syndrome surgery and prior rib removal anchors trader sentiment, as he posted a sub-3.00 ERA through midseason with elite strikeout rates before a recent August slump featuring elevated walks and a 7.59 ERA over five starts. Brandon Woodruff's shoulder capsule healing without surgery has sustained his second-place positioning despite limited innings and ongoing recovery. Michael Harris II and Sandy Alcantara trail due to more modest statistical rebounds from prior setbacks, while lower-priced names like O'Neil Cruz reflect smaller sample improvements. The wisdom of crowds reflected in these implied probabilities weighs full-season durability and production most heavily for the NL award.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated

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