Recent statements from OpenAI executives, including Sam Altman's August 2026 TIME interview projecting an internal AGI-class system by year-end and Chief Research Officer Mark Chen's assessment that the company is roughly 80% there, have not shifted trader sentiment. The market prices "No" at 86% primarily because these claims center on non-public milestones with Astra, a forthcoming model family demonstrating agentic capabilities like solving unsolved math problems and automating entry-level research tasks, rather than a formal public announcement meeting OpenAI's charter definition of AGI as highly autonomous systems outperforming humans across most economically valuable work. Persistent uncertainty around exact resolution criteria, prior timeline adjustments, ongoing safety reviews, and competitive pressures reinforce the strong consensus against an official declaration before 2027.