**Buffalo’s established core and Miami’s rebuilding phase explain the market’s strong lean toward the Bills winning the season series.** With Josh Allen anchoring a projected top offense under new head coach Joe Brady, the Bills enter 2026 with roster continuity on both sides, recent preseason momentum (undefeated exhibition record), and win-total projections around 10–11 games that position them as AFC East frontrunners. Miami, by contrast, is undergoing a full reset with new GM Jon-Eric Sullivan and head coach Jeff Hafley, a depleted skill group, limited starting experience at quarterback behind Malik Willis, and win projections clustered near 5–6 games amid a challenging schedule. The two regular-season meetings (Bills home Nov. 22; Dolphins home in Week 17) therefore carry asymmetric expectations, with the Dolphins viewed as significant underdogs in both. A split resulting in a tie remains plausible only if Miami captures an upset on the road or at home late in the year, but the current implied probabilities reflect broad trader consensus on Buffalo’s superior roster depth, coaching stability, and recent form versus Miami’s transitional roster challenges.