The Parti Québécois maintains a consistent lead in recent polling aggregates at around 30 percent, driven by dominant support among francophone voters that translates into a strong seat projection edge for a plurality or majority in the 127-seat National Assembly ahead of the October 5 vote. This positioning stems from the PQ’s gains through multiple by-elections since 2022 and its consolidation of sovereignty-leaning support, even as leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has signaled a delayed referendum timeline. The Coalition Avenir Québec and Parti Libéral du Québec remain closely matched in the low-to-mid 20s, with the CAQ showing a modest recent uptick amid external economic pressures while both trail significantly among francophones; their split of federalist votes limits path-to-victory scenarios. Smaller parties including the Parti Conservateur du Québec register in the mid-teens but face structural barriers to broad gains. High levels of undecided voters and the campaign’s imminent launch introduce volatility that could still shift outcomes in key ridings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedQuebec General Election Winner
Quebec General Election Winner
PQ 72%
CAQ 17%
PLQ 11%
PCQ <1%
$816,381 Vol.
$816,381 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
PQ
72%
CAQ
17%
PLQ
11%
PCQ
<1%
PVQ
<1%
QS
<1%
PQ 72%
CAQ 17%
PLQ 11%
PCQ <1%
$816,381 Vol.
$816,381 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
PQ
$94,163 Vol.
72%
CAQ
$118,576 Vol.
17%
PLQ
$109,906 Vol.
11%
PCQ
$231,690 Vol.
<1%
PVQ
$157,522 Vol.
<1%
QS
$104,523 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).The Parti Québécois maintains a consistent lead in recent polling aggregates at around 30 percent, driven by dominant support among francophone voters that translates into a strong seat projection edge for a plurality or majority in the 127-seat National Assembly ahead of the October 5 vote. This positioning stems from the PQ’s gains through multiple by-elections since 2022 and its consolidation of sovereignty-leaning support, even as leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has signaled a delayed referendum timeline. The Coalition Avenir Québec and Parti Libéral du Québec remain closely matched in the low-to-mid 20s, with the CAQ showing a modest recent uptick amid external economic pressures while both trail significantly among francophones; their split of federalist votes limits path-to-victory scenarios. Smaller parties including the Parti Conservateur du Québec register in the mid-teens but face structural barriers to broad gains. High levels of undecided voters and the campaign’s imminent launch introduce volatility that could still shift outcomes in key ridings.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Market Opened: Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
Volume
$816,381End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).The Parti Québécois maintains a consistent lead in recent polling aggregates at around 30 percent, driven by dominant support among francophone voters that translates into a strong seat projection edge for a plurality or majority in the 127-seat National Assembly ahead of the October 5 vote. This positioning stems from the PQ’s gains through multiple by-elections since 2022 and its consolidation of sovereignty-leaning support, even as leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has signaled a delayed referendum timeline. The Coalition Avenir Québec and Parti Libéral du Québec remain closely matched in the low-to-mid 20s, with the CAQ showing a modest recent uptick amid external economic pressures while both trail significantly among francophones; their split of federalist votes limits path-to-victory scenarios. Smaller parties including the Parti Conservateur du Québec register in the mid-teens but face structural barriers to broad gains. High levels of undecided voters and the campaign’s imminent launch introduce volatility that could still shift outcomes in key ridings.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$816,381End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Parti Québécois maintains a consistent lead in recent polling aggregates at around 30 percent, driven by dominant support among francophone voters that translates into a strong seat projection edge for a plurality or majority in the 127-seat National Assembly ahead of the October 5 vote. This positioning stems from the PQ’s gains through multiple by-elections since 2022 and its consolidation of sovereignty-leaning support, even as leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has signaled a delayed referendum timeline. The Coalition Avenir Québec and Parti Libéral du Québec remain closely matched in the low-to-mid 20s, with the CAQ showing a modest recent uptick amid external economic pressures while both trail significantly among francophones; their split of federalist votes limits path-to-victory scenarios. Smaller parties including the Parti Conservateur du Québec register in the mid-teens but face structural barriers to broad gains. High levels of undecided voters and the campaign’s imminent launch introduce volatility that could still shift outcomes in key ridings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
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