Recent detections of New World screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) have climbed to 47 confirmed U.S. cases as of late August 2026, concentrated in Texas with one in New Mexico, following the first livestock find in Zavala County on June 3. USDA-APHIS leads an eradication effort emphasizing sterile insect technique releases, enhanced surveillance, quarantines, and animal movement controls across parts of 23 counties, while a new sterile-fly facility in Edinburg advances toward 2027 operations. Prior federal action includes the August 2025 HHS determination of significant potential for public health emergency, enabling FDA emergency use authorizations for animal drugs, alongside Texas Governor Abbott’s repeated state disaster proclamations. Key upcoming factors include phased southern border port reopenings for Mexican livestock, quarterly response playbook reviews, and any further case spread or model updates that could prompt broader federal declarations. Market-implied odds reflect trader assessment of these containment thresholds and economic risks to the cattle sector.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedScrewworm National Emergency declared by...?
Screwworm National Emergency declared by...?
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
August 30
47%
October 31
44%
December 31
44%
$1,442 Vol.
August 30
$61 Vol.
47%
October 31
$0 Vol.
44%
December 31
$0 Vol.
44%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the United States federal government formally declares a national emergency, an extraordinary emergency, or uses another emergency authority to declare a national crisis in response to a screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) outbreak in U.S. livestock by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent detections of New World screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) have climbed to 47 confirmed U.S. cases as of late August 2026, concentrated in Texas with one in New Mexico, following the first livestock find in Zavala County on June 3. USDA-APHIS leads an eradication effort emphasizing sterile insect technique releases, enhanced surveillance, quarantines, and animal movement controls across parts of 23 counties, while a new sterile-fly facility in Edinburg advances toward 2027 operations. Prior federal action includes the August 2025 HHS determination of significant potential for public health emergency, enabling FDA emergency use authorizations for animal drugs, alongside Texas Governor Abbott’s repeated state disaster proclamations. Key upcoming factors include phased southern border port reopenings for Mexican livestock, quarterly response playbook reviews, and any further case spread or model updates that could prompt broader federal declarations. Market-implied odds reflect trader assessment of these containment thresholds and economic risks to the cattle sector.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the United States federal government formally declares a national emergency, an extraordinary emergency, or uses another emergency authority to declare a national crisis in response to a screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) outbreak in U.S. livestock by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 10, 2026, 11:54 AM ET
Volume
$1,442End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 10, 2026, 11:54 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the United States federal government formally declares a national emergency, an extraordinary emergency, or uses another emergency authority to declare a national crisis in response to a screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) outbreak in U.S. livestock by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent detections of New World screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) have climbed to 47 confirmed U.S. cases as of late August 2026, concentrated in Texas with one in New Mexico, following the first livestock find in Zavala County on June 3. USDA-APHIS leads an eradication effort emphasizing sterile insect technique releases, enhanced surveillance, quarantines, and animal movement controls across parts of 23 counties, while a new sterile-fly facility in Edinburg advances toward 2027 operations. Prior federal action includes the August 2025 HHS determination of significant potential for public health emergency, enabling FDA emergency use authorizations for animal drugs, alongside Texas Governor Abbott’s repeated state disaster proclamations. Key upcoming factors include phased southern border port reopenings for Mexican livestock, quarterly response playbook reviews, and any further case spread or model updates that could prompt broader federal declarations. Market-implied odds reflect trader assessment of these containment thresholds and economic risks to the cattle sector.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the United States federal government formally declares a national emergency, an extraordinary emergency, or uses another emergency authority to declare a national crisis in response to a screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) outbreak in U.S. livestock by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,442End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 10, 2026, 11:54 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent detections of New World screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) have climbed to 47 confirmed U.S. cases as of late August 2026, concentrated in Texas with one in New Mexico, following the first livestock find in Zavala County on June 3. USDA-APHIS leads an eradication effort emphasizing sterile insect technique releases, enhanced surveillance, quarantines, and animal movement controls across parts of 23 counties, while a new sterile-fly facility in Edinburg advances toward 2027 operations. Prior federal action includes the August 2025 HHS determination of significant potential for public health emergency, enabling FDA emergency use authorizations for animal drugs, alongside Texas Governor Abbott’s repeated state disaster proclamations. Key upcoming factors include phased southern border port reopenings for Mexican livestock, quarterly response playbook reviews, and any further case spread or model updates that could prompt broader federal declarations. Market-implied odds reflect trader assessment of these containment thresholds and economic risks to the cattle sector.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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