Recent detections of New World screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) larvae causing myiasis in cattle and other animals remain concentrated in Texas and New Mexico, with USDA confirming roughly 45–47 domestic cases as of late August 2026. The parasite’s northward spread from Mexico has prompted expanded sterile insect releases, quarantines, movement controls, and 14 FDA Emergency Use Authorizations for ivermectin and other treatments, following the HHS determination in August 2025 that enabled such authorizations. Texas issued repeated state disaster proclamations, while federal agencies rely on existing USDA and APHIS authorities rather than a broader national emergency declaration. Traders monitor upcoming surveillance updates, sterile fly production milestones, port reopening audits, and any new confirmed cases that could alter the scope of response measures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedScrewworm National Emergency declared by...?
Screwworm National Emergency declared by...?
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
August 30
42%
October 31
44%
December 31
45%
$1,442 Vol.
August 30
$61 Vol.
42%
October 31
$0 Vol.
44%
December 31
$0 Vol.
45%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the United States federal government formally declares a national emergency, an extraordinary emergency, or uses another emergency authority to declare a national crisis in response to a screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) outbreak in U.S. livestock by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent detections of New World screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) larvae causing myiasis in cattle and other animals remain concentrated in Texas and New Mexico, with USDA confirming roughly 45–47 domestic cases as of late August 2026. The parasite’s northward spread from Mexico has prompted expanded sterile insect releases, quarantines, movement controls, and 14 FDA Emergency Use Authorizations for ivermectin and other treatments, following the HHS determination in August 2025 that enabled such authorizations. Texas issued repeated state disaster proclamations, while federal agencies rely on existing USDA and APHIS authorities rather than a broader national emergency declaration. Traders monitor upcoming surveillance updates, sterile fly production milestones, port reopening audits, and any new confirmed cases that could alter the scope of response measures.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the United States federal government formally declares a national emergency, an extraordinary emergency, or uses another emergency authority to declare a national crisis in response to a screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) outbreak in U.S. livestock by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 10, 2026, 11:54 AM ET
Volume
$1,442End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 10, 2026, 11:54 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the United States federal government formally declares a national emergency, an extraordinary emergency, or uses another emergency authority to declare a national crisis in response to a screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) outbreak in U.S. livestock by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent detections of New World screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) larvae causing myiasis in cattle and other animals remain concentrated in Texas and New Mexico, with USDA confirming roughly 45–47 domestic cases as of late August 2026. The parasite’s northward spread from Mexico has prompted expanded sterile insect releases, quarantines, movement controls, and 14 FDA Emergency Use Authorizations for ivermectin and other treatments, following the HHS determination in August 2025 that enabled such authorizations. Texas issued repeated state disaster proclamations, while federal agencies rely on existing USDA and APHIS authorities rather than a broader national emergency declaration. Traders monitor upcoming surveillance updates, sterile fly production milestones, port reopening audits, and any new confirmed cases that could alter the scope of response measures.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the United States federal government formally declares a national emergency, an extraordinary emergency, or uses another emergency authority to declare a national crisis in response to a screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) outbreak in U.S. livestock by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,442End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 10, 2026, 11:54 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent detections of New World screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) larvae causing myiasis in cattle and other animals remain concentrated in Texas and New Mexico, with USDA confirming roughly 45–47 domestic cases as of late August 2026. The parasite’s northward spread from Mexico has prompted expanded sterile insect releases, quarantines, movement controls, and 14 FDA Emergency Use Authorizations for ivermectin and other treatments, following the HHS determination in August 2025 that enabled such authorizations. Texas issued repeated state disaster proclamations, while federal agencies rely on existing USDA and APHIS authorities rather than a broader national emergency declaration. Traders monitor upcoming surveillance updates, sterile fly production milestones, port reopening audits, and any new confirmed cases that could alter the scope of response measures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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