Recent Middle East conflict-driven energy price volatility has tightened UK financial conditions and eroded real household incomes, prompting the Bank of England to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% in July with a split vote reflecting upside inflation risks. Official data showed 0.4% QoQ GDP growth in Q2 2026, but business surveys and BoE staff estimates point to underlying momentum near 0.1% and headline growth around that level for Q3 amid weak domestic demand. Independent forecasts cluster near 0.1–0.2% for the quarter, consistent with market-implied probabilities favoring 0.2–0.3% expansion while assigning meaningful weight to outcomes near 0.4%. The September BoE meeting and September monthly GDP release remain key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated0.2–0.3% 41%
0.4–0.5% 26%
0.0–0.1% 17%
0.6–0.7% 7%
$14,823 Vol.
$14,823 Vol.
Nov 11, 2026
Negative
7%
0.0–0.1%
17%
0.2–0.3%
41%
0.4–0.5%
26%
0.6–0.7%
7%
0.8–0.9%
1%
1.0%+
2%
0.2–0.3% 41%
0.4–0.5% 26%
0.0–0.1% 17%
0.6–0.7% 7%
$14,823 Vol.
$14,823 Vol.
Nov 11, 2026
Negative
$3,235 Vol.
7%
0.0–0.1%
$5,186 Vol.
17%
0.2–0.3%
$4,291 Vol.
41%
0.4–0.5%
$1,422 Vol.
26%
0.6–0.7%
$264 Vol.
7%
0.8–0.9%
$195 Vol.
1%
1.0%+
$231 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent Middle East conflict-driven energy price volatility has tightened UK financial conditions and eroded real household incomes, prompting the Bank of England to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% in July with a split vote reflecting upside inflation risks. Official data showed 0.4% QoQ GDP growth in Q2 2026, but business surveys and BoE staff estimates point to underlying momentum near 0.1% and headline growth around that level for Q3 amid weak domestic demand. Independent forecasts cluster near 0.1–0.2% for the quarter, consistent with market-implied probabilities favoring 0.2–0.3% expansion while assigning meaningful weight to outcomes near 0.4%. The September BoE meeting and September monthly GDP release remain key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 1:43 PM ET
Volume
$14,823End Date
Nov 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 1:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent Middle East conflict-driven energy price volatility has tightened UK financial conditions and eroded real household incomes, prompting the Bank of England to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% in July with a split vote reflecting upside inflation risks. Official data showed 0.4% QoQ GDP growth in Q2 2026, but business surveys and BoE staff estimates point to underlying momentum near 0.1% and headline growth around that level for Q3 amid weak domestic demand. Independent forecasts cluster near 0.1–0.2% for the quarter, consistent with market-implied probabilities favoring 0.2–0.3% expansion while assigning meaningful weight to outcomes near 0.4%. The September BoE meeting and September monthly GDP release remain key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$14,823End Date
Nov 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 1:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Middle East conflict-driven energy price volatility has tightened UK financial conditions and eroded real household incomes, prompting the Bank of England to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% in July with a split vote reflecting upside inflation risks. Official data showed 0.4% QoQ GDP growth in Q2 2026, but business surveys and BoE staff estimates point to underlying momentum near 0.1% and headline growth around that level for Q3 amid weak domestic demand. Independent forecasts cluster near 0.1–0.2% for the quarter, consistent with market-implied probabilities favoring 0.2–0.3% expansion while assigning meaningful weight to outcomes near 0.4%. The September BoE meeting and September monthly GDP release remain key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions