Recent data releases and divergent nowcasts underpin the competitive Polymarket odds for Q3 2026 U.S. GDP growth, with Atlanta Fed GDPNow at 4.6% contrasting NY Fed and St. Louis Fed estimates near 2.2-2.4%. Q2 growth held at 1.5% annualized, supported by upward revisions to consumer spending at 3.4% and solid business investment tied to AI outlays, while July nonfarm payrolls declined 23,000 and unemployment edged to 4.1%. Sticky PCE inflation near 3.7% year-over-year adds policy uncertainty ahead of the September FOMC meeting. These mixed signals—resilient final demand versus softening employment—sustain tight probabilities across the 2.0-3.0% range, with the advance BEA estimate due in late October serving as the key catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated≥3.0% 32%
2.0–2.5% 26%
2.5–3.0% 23%
1.5–2.0% 9%
$23,576 Vol.
$23,576 Vol.
Oct 29, 2026
<0.5%
2%
0.5–1.0%
6%
1.0–1.5%
6%
1.5–2.0%
9%
2.0–2.5%
26%
2.5–3.0%
23%
≥3.0%
32%
≥3.0% 32%
2.0–2.5% 26%
2.5–3.0% 23%
1.5–2.0% 9%
$23,576 Vol.
$23,576 Vol.
Oct 29, 2026
<0.5%
$791 Vol.
2%
0.5–1.0%
$485 Vol.
6%
1.0–1.5%
$565 Vol.
6%
1.5–2.0%
$599 Vol.
9%
2.0–2.5%
$1,810 Vol.
26%
2.5–3.0%
$3,229 Vol.
23%
≥3.0%
$16,097 Vol.
32%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent data releases and divergent nowcasts underpin the competitive Polymarket odds for Q3 2026 U.S. GDP growth, with Atlanta Fed GDPNow at 4.6% contrasting NY Fed and St. Louis Fed estimates near 2.2-2.4%. Q2 growth held at 1.5% annualized, supported by upward revisions to consumer spending at 3.4% and solid business investment tied to AI outlays, while July nonfarm payrolls declined 23,000 and unemployment edged to 4.1%. Sticky PCE inflation near 3.7% year-over-year adds policy uncertainty ahead of the September FOMC meeting. These mixed signals—resilient final demand versus softening employment—sustain tight probabilities across the 2.0-3.0% range, with the advance BEA estimate due in late October serving as the key catalyst.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
Volume
$23,576End Date
Oct 29, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent data releases and divergent nowcasts underpin the competitive Polymarket odds for Q3 2026 U.S. GDP growth, with Atlanta Fed GDPNow at 4.6% contrasting NY Fed and St. Louis Fed estimates near 2.2-2.4%. Q2 growth held at 1.5% annualized, supported by upward revisions to consumer spending at 3.4% and solid business investment tied to AI outlays, while July nonfarm payrolls declined 23,000 and unemployment edged to 4.1%. Sticky PCE inflation near 3.7% year-over-year adds policy uncertainty ahead of the September FOMC meeting. These mixed signals—resilient final demand versus softening employment—sustain tight probabilities across the 2.0-3.0% range, with the advance BEA estimate due in late October serving as the key catalyst.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Volume
$23,576End Date
Oct 29, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent data releases and divergent nowcasts underpin the competitive Polymarket odds for Q3 2026 U.S. GDP growth, with Atlanta Fed GDPNow at 4.6% contrasting NY Fed and St. Louis Fed estimates near 2.2-2.4%. Q2 growth held at 1.5% annualized, supported by upward revisions to consumer spending at 3.4% and solid business investment tied to AI outlays, while July nonfarm payrolls declined 23,000 and unemployment edged to 4.1%. Sticky PCE inflation near 3.7% year-over-year adds policy uncertainty ahead of the September FOMC meeting. These mixed signals—resilient final demand versus softening employment—sustain tight probabilities across the 2.0-3.0% range, with the advance BEA estimate due in late October serving as the key catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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