Apple’s first foldable iPhone, widely expected as the “iPhone Ultra,” drives the 93.5% market-implied probability of a pre-2027 release through consistent supply-chain signals and analyst reports confirming a September 2026 debut alongside iPhone 18 Pro models. Recent iOS 27 beta code references to foldState, hinge-angle detection, and dual displays reinforce preparation for a book-style device with 5.5-inch cover and 7.8-inch inner screens, while debunked delay rumors and early component shipments support on-time production. Apple’s plans for a second-generation model in 2027 further signal commitment to the category. A realistic challenge remains a minor production slip pushing volume shipments into early 2027, though the September 9 event and historical launch patterns favor resolution this fall.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated94% chance
$303,438 Vol.
$303,438 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
94% chance
$303,438 Vol.
$303,438 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases a foldable iPhone by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
A qualifying release of a foldable smartphone by Apple will count even if it is not explicitly branded an iPhone.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s first foldable iPhone, widely expected as the “iPhone Ultra,” drives the 93.5% market-implied probability of a pre-2027 release through consistent supply-chain signals and analyst reports confirming a September 2026 debut alongside iPhone 18 Pro models. Recent iOS 27 beta code references to foldState, hinge-angle detection, and dual displays reinforce preparation for a book-style device with 5.5-inch cover and 7.8-inch inner screens, while debunked delay rumors and early component shipments support on-time production. Apple’s plans for a second-generation model in 2027 further signal commitment to the category. A realistic challenge remains a minor production slip pushing volume shipments into early 2027, though the September 9 event and historical launch patterns favor resolution this fall.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases a foldable iPhone by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
A qualifying release of a foldable smartphone by Apple will count even if it is not explicitly branded an iPhone.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
A qualifying release of a foldable smartphone by Apple will count even if it is not explicitly branded an iPhone.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 12, 2025, 1:27 PM ET
Volume
$303,438End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 1:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases a foldable iPhone by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
A qualifying release of a foldable smartphone by Apple will count even if it is not explicitly branded an iPhone.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s first foldable iPhone, widely expected as the “iPhone Ultra,” drives the 93.5% market-implied probability of a pre-2027 release through consistent supply-chain signals and analyst reports confirming a September 2026 debut alongside iPhone 18 Pro models. Recent iOS 27 beta code references to foldState, hinge-angle detection, and dual displays reinforce preparation for a book-style device with 5.5-inch cover and 7.8-inch inner screens, while debunked delay rumors and early component shipments support on-time production. Apple’s plans for a second-generation model in 2027 further signal commitment to the category. A realistic challenge remains a minor production slip pushing volume shipments into early 2027, though the September 9 event and historical launch patterns favor resolution this fall.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases a foldable iPhone by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
A qualifying release of a foldable smartphone by Apple will count even if it is not explicitly branded an iPhone.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
A qualifying release of a foldable smartphone by Apple will count even if it is not explicitly branded an iPhone.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$303,438End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 1:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple’s first foldable iPhone, widely expected as the “iPhone Ultra,” drives the 93.5% market-implied probability of a pre-2027 release through consistent supply-chain signals and analyst reports confirming a September 2026 debut alongside iPhone 18 Pro models. Recent iOS 27 beta code references to foldState, hinge-angle detection, and dual displays reinforce preparation for a book-style device with 5.5-inch cover and 7.8-inch inner screens, while debunked delay rumors and early component shipments support on-time production. Apple’s plans for a second-generation model in 2027 further signal commitment to the category. A realistic challenge remains a minor production slip pushing volume shipments into early 2027, though the September 9 event and historical launch patterns favor resolution this fall.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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